Update of seasonal determinations for 2020/21

Tuesday 15 September, 2020

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 32 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 36 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 47 per cent HRWS to 51 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 68 per cent HRWS to 74 per cent HRWS. The Broken system increases from 63 per cent HRWS to 72 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Bullarook system remain unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said resources continued to improve, despite a lack of substantial rain in recent weeks.

“The flows into the storages were higher than our conservative estimates over the last fortnight,” Dr Bailey said.

“This was the main contribution to the increased seasonal determinations announced today.”

Dr Bailey welcomed the full establishment of the early season reserve in the Goulburn system, which is designed to ensure there is sufficient water available to operate the system and deliver carried over allocation next season.

“Future resource improvements in the Goulburn system this season will be directed towards allocation against high-reliability water share seasonal determinations,” Dr Bailey noted.

"The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three month period from October to December. A La Niña alert remains in effect, meaning the chance of a La Niña event forming is around 70 per cent during spring. La Niña events may support rainfall across southeast Australia.”

Dr Bailey advised entitlement holders to use the seasonal determination outlooks and weather information when planning their water needs in 2020/21.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday, September 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 36% 0%
Broken 72% 0%
Goulburn 51% 0%
Campaspe 74% 0%
Loddon 51% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 251 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday October 1, 2020.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday October 12, 2020.