Goulburn seasonal determination for 2020/21 hits 100 per cent

Monday 16 November, 2020

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 93 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.

The Murray system moves from 77 per cent HRWS to 81 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system remain at 100 per cent HRWS. The Broken and Bullarook systems are unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey welcomed the improvements that enabled the Goulburn system seasonal determination to reach 100 per cent HRWS for the first time since 2018/19.

“Flows into the storages since the last update were higher than our conservative estimates, despite limited rain,” Dr Bailey said.

“The additional water helped the Goulburn system to 100 per cent HRWS and consolidated reserves in other systems.

“The Murray system is short of 100 per cent HRWS, but the seasonal outlook remains optimistic.”

Dr Bailey said the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three month period from December to February.

“The Bureau says La Niña conditions could last until the end of summer. A La Niña can support above‑average rainfall across southeast Australia through spring and early summer.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, November 16 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 81% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 314 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

Conversely, the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 December 2020.