Seasonal Determination – 17 August 2020

Monday 17 August, 2020

Update of seasonal determinations and outlooks for 2020/21

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations and outlook.

The Murray system moves from 19 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 24 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 37 per cent HRWS to 40 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 40 per cent HRWS to 45 per cent HRWS. The Broken system increases from 30 per cent HRWS to 39 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Bullarook system increases from 5 per cent HRWS to 19 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said rain led to the seasonal determination increases announced today.

“After falling during June and July, flows into the major storages have picked up following the rain of the past week,” said Dr Bailey.

“More rain will bring further improvements in the seasonal determinations,” said Dr Bailey. “The region’s major storages historically record their highest flows between August and October.”

Dr Bailey said the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three month period from September to November.

“The Bureau has issued a La Niña watch meaning the chance of a La Niña forming is around 50 per cent in late winter or early spring. La Niña events may support rainfall across southeast Australia.”

Dr Bailey advised entitlement holders to use the seasonal determination outlooks and weather information when planning their water needs in 2020/21.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, August 17 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 24% 0%
Broken 39% 0%
Goulburn 40% 0%
Campaspe 45% 0%
Loddon 40% 0%
Bullarook 19% 0%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 237 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday September 1, 2020.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be updated on Thursday September 10, 2020.