Seasonal Determination - 2 November 2020

Monday 2 November, 2020

Murray, Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations for 2020/21 increase

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 55 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 77 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 77 per cent HRWS to 93 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system remain at 100 per cent HRWS. The Broken and Bullarook systems are unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said rainfall since the last seasonal determination update had produced another large increase in water availability in the Murray and Goulburn systems.

“The announced improvements are the benefits from rain in consecutive weeks,” Dr Bailey said. “Higher streamflows increased the volumes in the major storages and the amount estimated to flow into the storages over the next few weeks.”

Dr Bailey said the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three month period from November to January.

“The Bureau says La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean and could last until the end of summer. La Niña events may support above-average rainfall across southeast Australia through spring and early summer.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, November 2 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 77% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 93% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 93% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 302 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

Conversely, the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The risk of spill in the Murray system will be updated on Tuesday 10 November 2020.
  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 16 November 2020.