Opening seasonal determinations and risk of spill update for 2022/23

Friday 1 July, 2022

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the first 2022/23 seasonal determinations, an updated outlook for 2022/23 water availability, and an updated assessment of the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

The Murray system starts 2022/23 with a seasonal determination of 94 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Goulburn and Loddon systems begin with 66 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system starts 2022/23 with 70 per cent HRWS. The Broken system opens with 38 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system starts with 19 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the opening seasonal determination in Murray system was the highest since 2002/03.

“The reserves established last season enabled the Murray system to start with the highest seasonal determination in 20 years,” Dr Bailey said.

“The opening seasonal determination in the Goulburn system is the highest since 2017/18.

“All of the northern Victorian systems have started 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook. Improvements will come with continuing rainfall and runoff into the major storages, and the latest Bureau of Meteorology forecast favours above-average rainfall to September.

“Customers should consider the rainfall forecast and the updated outlook for seasonal determinations when planning their water needs this year.”

Dr Bailey urged Murray system customers to note the effect of continued releases from Lake Hume for airspace management.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is continuing to manage the rate of filling at Lake Hume. Entitlements holders in the Murray system should note a deduction from spillable water accounts will occur in mid-August after the volumes released during July are confirmed,” Dr Bailey said.

“The situation at Lake Hume means the risk of spill in the Murray system is effectively 100 per cent. The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 80 per cent and the risk of spill from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system is about 20 per cent.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday 1 July are:
Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 94% 0%
Broken 38% 0%
Goulburn 66% 0%
Campaspe 70% 0%
Loddon 66% 0%
Bullarook 19% 0%


Trading Opportunities

The Victorian Water Register opened for the new water year at 12.00 am (midnight) on July 1, 2022. Trade opportunity from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream opened at 12.05 am (5 minutes past midnight). More information about trade opening times is available at the Water Register website.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. As Victoria’s share of Hume and Dartmouth is full, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is not possible. This volume is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on  the Victorian Water Register website.

A new trade rule for trade from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia is in effect from July, 1 2022. The new trade rule means that approximately 85 GL of trade opportunity will be available from 2:00 pm on July 1, 2022 and further opportunities will be announced in October and December based on seasonal conditions. From December, net trade will be capped.

More details about the new trade rule are available at the Victorian Water Register website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Trade from the Broken system re-opens at 2:00pm on July 1, 2022 and is allowed when the Broken system’s IVT account owes less than 1,500 ML to the Goulburn system.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Victorian Water Register website, from July 1, 2022 when the Water Register reopens.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) has announced that trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday 11 July 2022.
  • The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday 15 July 2022 and will include an updated outlook.