Seasonal determinations and outlook update for 2022/23

Friday 15 July, 2022

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the seasonal determinations and outlook for 2022/23 water availability.

The Murray system moves from 94 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 96 per cent HWRS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 66 per cent HRWS to 68 per cent HWRS.

The Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook system seasonal determinations remain unchanged.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said drier conditions meant there was little improvement in water availability since the opening announcement.

“Moderate rainfall since the start of July has meant runoff into the major storages has been close to our estimates,” Dr Bailey said.

“This allowed only the minor improvements for the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems announced today. Today’s announcement also includes the carryover data that has been updated since the start of the new water year.

“While recent conditions have been relatively dry, the latest Bureau of Meteorology forecast continues to favour above-average rainfall to October. Improvements to the seasonal determinations will come with further rainfall and runoff into the major storages.”

Dr Bailey reminded Murray system customers about the effect of continued releases from Lake Hume for airspace management.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is continuing to manage the rate of filling at Lake Hume. Entitlements holders in the Murray system should note a deduction from spillable water accounts will occur in mid-August after the volumes released during July are confirmed.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday 15 July are:
Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 96% 0%
Broken 38% 0%
Goulburn 68% 0%
Campaspe 70% 0%
Loddon 68% 0%
Bullarook 19% 0%


Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill from Victoria’s share of both Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir below 50 per cent. Presently, allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is not possible because Victoria’s shares of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir are full. The opportunity for allocation trade is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can learn more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

A new trade rule for trade from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia came into effect from July, 1 2022. Further trade opportunities will be announced in October and December based on seasonal conditions. From December, net trade will be capped.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Victorian Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) has announced that trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 August 2022.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Wednesday 10 August 2022.