The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the first 2024/25 seasonal determinations, an updated determination outlook, and the initial risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.
The Murray system starts 2024/25 with a seasonal determination of 63 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Goulburn and Loddon systems begin with 69 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system starts 2024/25 with 100 per cent HRWS. The Broken system opens with 5 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system starts the year with 0 per cent HRWS.
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the opening seasonal determinations reflected reserve availability across the systems.
“Reserves secured during 2023/24 have underwritten the opening seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems,” Dr Bailey said.
“The storages in these systems are holding large volumes despite recent months of below-average rainfall.
“Growth in the seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems will depend on rainfall and resulting catchment flows during the early months of the water year.”
Noting the recent weather aligned with a dry outlook scenario, Dr Bailey said the latest Bureau of Meteorology outlook favoured slightly below-average rainfall between July and September.
“The risk of spill in the Murray system is 85 per cent and 80 per cent in the Goulburn system,” Dr Bailey said.
“In the Campaspe system, the risk of spill from Lake Eppalock is about 70 per cent.
“The risks have fallen since the last update, consistent with below-average storage flows in May and June.”
Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.
“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, July 1 are:
| Murray |
63% |
0% |
| Broken |
5% |
0% |
| Goulburn |
69% |
0% |
| Campaspe |
100% |
0% |
| Loddon |
69% |
0% |
| Bullarook |
0% |
0% |
Trading Opportunities
The Barmah Choke trade opportunity was released at 8:30am on Monday July 1. Announcements on other inter‑valley trade opportunities are scheduled for Tuesday July 2. More information about trade opening times and trade limits is available at the Victorian Water Register website..
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Hume and Dartmouth is currently greater than 50 per cent, allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is not possible. The volume available for trade is updated monthly with each risk of spill announcement.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Wednesday 10 July, 2024.
- The next 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 15 July, 2024 and will include an updated outlook.