Seasonal Determination - 1 August 2018

2018/19 Seasonal determination update

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 47 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 49 per cent HRWS. 

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 34 per cent HRWS to 37 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Broken system and the Bullarook system remain at 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there had been minor improvements in the volume of water available.

“Streamflows into the major storages exceeded our forecasts due to rain in the last fortnight,” said Dr Bailey. “The catchments are responding to rain when it falls, but we need more rain to increase storage levels and generate larger seasonal determination improvements.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks continued to favour drier conditions.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria is more likely during the August to October period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, August 1 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 49% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 37% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 37% 0%
Bullarook 0% 0%

 

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill in the Murray system is above 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the volume traded from Victoria to New South Wales.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on August 10, 2018.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 235 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated has recently been added to the allocation trading page waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading#AllocationTradeOpportunities.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/interstate-water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Friday August 10, 2018
  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement, including an updated outlook will be released on Wednesday August 15, 2018.