2019/20 seasonal determination update

Friday 15 November, 2019

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 42 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 48 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 53 per cent HRWS to 61 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 58 per cent HRWS to 60 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system remains on 100% HRWS and 100% low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said a range of factors influenced the improvements in water availability.

“Flows into the storages were higher than our conservative estimates following rain in the first half of November,” Dr Bailey said.

“The rain also meant evaporation and river losses were lower than estimated, which further contributed to the increased seasonal determinations announced today.”

Dr Bailey noted an update of water use and trade data showed there was more water available to Victoria in the Murray system. This also contributed to the increase in that system.

Dr Bailey welcomed the full establishment of the early season reserve in the Murray system, which allows all future resource improvements in the system this season to be directed to high-reliability water share seasonal determinations.

Resources in the Broken system remain insufficient for a seasonal determination. 

“The shortfall to announcing a positive seasonal determination has reduced to 2,600 megalitres and carryover commitments can be supplied throughout the water year," Dr Bailey said.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks show below-average rainfall across northern Victoria is more likely over the summer months." 

Dr Bailey advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday, November 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 48% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 61% 0%
Campaspe 60% 0%
Loddon 61% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 256 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations commenced in late October and will continue through November and December. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 2 December 2019.