Final 2018/19 seasonal determinations and updated 2019/20 outlook

Monday 1 April, 2019

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today announced the final update of seasonal determinations for 2018/19 and an updated outlook for 2019/20 seasonal determinations.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 35 per cent HRWS to 37 per cent HRWS.

The Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe and Loddon systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the recent cooler weather had led to the small seasonal determination increase announced for the Broken system.

“Operating conditions were slightly better than our conservative estimates in the Broken system,” Dr Bailey said.

“This slightly increased volumes available to allocate in the Broken system.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for rainfall over the next three months do not favour wetter or drier conditions across northern Victoria.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates the chance of receiving above average rainfall during the April to June period is close to 50 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“With lower reserves, dry conditions and an uncertain climate outlook, we have updated the outlook for 2019/20 seasonal conditions to give water users the most up-to-date information for their planning.

“Continued dry conditions in 2019/20 will mean seasonal determinations will be lower than 2018/19.

“However, it is difficult to predict what the flows into the major storages will be. A number of possible scenarios are provided in the outlook to help with planning decisions."

Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully.

“Websites such as the Resource Manager ( www.nvrm.net.au ), the Victorian Water Register ( www.waterregister.vic.gov.au ) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority ( www.mdba.gov.au ) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use," he said.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday 1 April are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 37% 0%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 120 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations are planned to continue into March. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Allocation trade out of the Broken system closed for this season on March 31. Trade applications received after March 31 will not be approved. Trade from the Broken system will reopen in early July, as soon as the necessary end of financial year water accounting tasks are completed in the Victorian Water Register. Note the March 31 closing date does not apply to trade within the Broken system or back-trade into the Broken from other systems.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Authority’s website Authority's website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • An updated 2019/20 seasonal determination outlook will be released on Wednesday 15 May 2019.