2019/20 seasonal determination update

Friday 1 November, 2019

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 40 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 42 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 50 per cent HRWS to 53 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 56 per cent HRWS to 58 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system remains on 100% HRWS and 100% low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said catchment conditions remained very dry, with low rainfall totals recorded since the last seasonal determination update.

“Flows into the storages are well below average, but still slightly higher than our conservative estimates,” Dr Bailey said.

“The small improvements allowed the increased seasonal determinations announced today.

“There is a 3,750 megalitre shortfall to announcing a positive seasonal determination in the Broken system. However, carryover commitments can be supplied throughout the water year.

“With the catchments drying, significant rainfall will be required to improve inflow conditions,” said Dr Bailey. “Without that kind of rainfall, large improvements in the seasonal determinations are unlikely.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks show below-average rainfall across northern Victoria is more likely between November and January."

Dr Bailey advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday, November 1 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 42% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 53% 0%
Campaspe 58% 0%
Loddon 53% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. 

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 251 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. 

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement, including an updated outlook, will be released on Friday November 15, 2019.