Seasonal determination - 15 March 2019

Friday 15 March, 2019

2018/19 seasonal determinations update

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

The seasonal determinations in the Goulburn system and in the Loddon system increase from 98 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 34 per cent HRWS to 35 per cent HRWS.

The Murray and Campaspe systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said recent cooler weather and updated delivery information had led to the small increases in seasonal determinations.

“Operating losses have again been slightly lower than our conservative estimates across the systems,” Dr Bailey said.

“When combined with water deliveries since the last assessment, there are slightly increased volumes available to allocate in the Goulburn, Loddon and Broken systems.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for rainfall over the next three months favoured drier conditions.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates the chance of receiving above average rainfall during the April to June period is between 30 and 40 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“To ensure water users have the most up to date information for their planning, the outlook for 2019/20 seasonal determinations will be updated on Monday, April 1.

“The outlook update will coincide with the last update of seasonal determinations for the 2018/19 water year.".

Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully.

“Websites such as the Resource Manager ( www.nvrm.net.au ), the Victorian Water Register ( www.waterregister.vic.gov.au ) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority ( www.mdba.gov.au ) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use," he said.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday, March 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 35% 0%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 143 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations are planned to continue into March. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

The volume in the Broken system’s inter-valley trade account is currently about 1,500 ML. Trade from the Broken system is allowed when the balance of this account is less than 1,500 ML. Further trading opportunities will be available as deliveries from the Broken inter-valley trade account to the Goulburn system are occurring or if backtrade occurs. Customers participating in the water trading market are reminded that allocation trading from the Broken system to other systems is only permitted from July 1 to March 31 in each water year.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Authority’s website Authority's website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The final 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday April 1, 2019.
  • An updated 2019/20 seasonal determination outlook will be released on Monday April 1, 2019.