2018/19 seasonal determinations update

Monday 15 October, 2018

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations and outlooks.

The Murray system moves from 82 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 84 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 74 per cent HRWS to 77 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 11 per cent HRWS to 14 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system increases from 100 per cent HRWS and 51 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.

 The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the change in water availability was influenced by recent weather conditions.

“Victoria has just experienced the second driest September since records began,” Dr Bailey said.

The well below average rainfall was reflected in the flows into the major storages.

“The flows were only slightly higher than our conservative estimates,” Dr Bailey said.

“Catchment areas were responding to rain in August, but dried significantly during September and the start of October.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks suggest the drier conditions will continue.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall is more likely across all of northern Victoria during the November to January period,” Dr Bailey said.

“The Bureau also raised the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook to El Niño Alert, meaning the chance an El Niño forming in 2018 is around 70 per cent. There are signs a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is currently underway. Both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year.” 

Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully.

“Websites such as the Resource Manager, the Victorian Water Register and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use," he said. 

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, October 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 84% 0%
Broken 14% 0%
Goulburn 77% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 77% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 203 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations continued in October. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday 1 November 2018.