2019/20 seasonal determination update

Tuesday 15 October, 2019

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 38 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 40 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 48 per cent HRWS to 50 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 54 per cent HRWS to 56 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0 per cent HRWS. The Bullarook system remains on 100% HRWS and 100% low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said flows into the major storages across northern Victoria were declining as recent rainfall totals remained low.

“Flows into the storages were low, but are slightly higher than our conservative estimates, which improved available resources and allowed the increased seasonal determinations," Dr Bailey said. 

“We are nearing the end of the period with historically higher flows. Without significant rainfall, large improvements in the seasonal determinations are unlikely. 

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks show below-average rainfall across northern Victoria is more likely between October and December.”

Dr Bailey welcomed the full establishment of the early season reserve in the Goulburn system, which allows all resource improvements in the system to be directed to high-reliability water share seasonal determinations.

Dr Bailey advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday, October 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 40% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 50% 0%
Campaspe 56% 0%
Loddon 50% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 251 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday November 1, 2019.