Seasonal Determination - 2 January 2019

Wednesday 2 January, 2019

2018/19 seasonal determinations update

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 93 per cent HRWS to 94 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 30 per cent HRWS to 32 per cent HRWS.

The Murray and Campaspe systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there was only a small water availability improvement.

“Conditions have been hot and dry since the last assessment, with no rain to provide an immediate boost to resource availability,” Dr Bailey said.

“However, the flows into the storages from the rain in December declined more slowly than anticipated and provided a small volume of additional resource to allocate.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for rainfall favour slightly drier conditions.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below average rainfall is more likely during the January to March period,” Dr Bailey said.

“The Bureau has issued an El Niño Alert. While temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are above El Niño thresholds, conditions in the atmosphere are not consistent with an El Niño. Based on the Pacific Ocean indicators, it would be unusual but not impossible for an El Niño to form during the summer months.”

Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully.

“Websites such as the Resource Manager ( www.nvrm.net.au ), the Victorian Water Register ( www.waterregister.vic.gov.au ) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority ( www.mdba.gov.au ) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use,” he said.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, January 2 are:

 

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 32% 0%
Goulburn 94% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 94% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 200 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations are planned to continue in January and February. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Authority’s website Authority's website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday January 15, 2019.