2018/19 seasonal determinations increase in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken systems

Wednesday 15 August, 2018

2018/19 seasonal determinations increase in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken systems

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations and outlooks.

The Murray system moves from 49 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 59 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 37 per cent HRWS to 47 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system is 1 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system increases from 0 per cent HRWS to 19 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there had been improvements in the volume of water available after rainfall in the last fortnight.

“The increased seasonal determinations announced today follow improvement in storage volumes after welcome rainfall in the catchment areas,” said Dr Bailey.

“Storage volumes in the Broken and Bullarook systems increased enough to secure all operating water in those systems and to make a seasonal determination for the first time this season,” said Dr Bailey.

“The fact that the catchments are responding to rain is encouraging. August and September are the months when most runoff occurs historically,” Dr Bailey added.

However, Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks are favouring drier conditions.

“The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook still indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria is more likely during the August to October period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, August 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 59% 0%
Broken 1% 0%
Goulburn 47% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 47% 0%
Bullarook 19% 0%

 

 

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 168 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on September 10, 2018.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 245 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading#AllocationTradeOpportunities.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/interstate-water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday September 3, 2018.
  • The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Monday September 10, 2018