Outlook for the 2017/18 season
The Resource Manager used historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:
Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
83% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
72% |
90% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
66% |
66% |
67% |
70% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
78% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
54% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
41% |
62% |
77% |
85% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
36% |
41% |
43% |
45% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
41% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
41% |
87% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
19% |
48% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2002/03 |
4% |
14% |
17% |
18% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
1996/97 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
1990/91 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
20% |
62% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
16% |
19% |
20% |
22% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The next 2017/18 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 August, 2017.
- The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Thursday 10 August 2017.
For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.