Current Outlook

Wednesday 15 July, 2020

Outlook for the 2020/21 season

The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

“Flows into the Murray, Goulburn and Broken storages in June were close to the average. Flows into Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system during June were below average,” Resource Manager Mark Bailey said.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 August 2020 15 October 2020 15 December 2020 17 February 2021
Wet 2016/17 40% 95%  100% 100%
Average 2005/06 25%  49%  84% 100%
Dry 2015/16  18%  35%  43% 48%
Extreme Dry 2006/07  15%  15%  17% 20%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  Similar inflow season 17 August 2020  15 October 2020 15 December 2020 17 February 2021
Wet 2010/11 63%  100%  100% 100%
Average 2003/04 46% 83% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 39%  50% 61% 68%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 37% 39% 41% 43%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 August 2020 15 October 2020 15 December 2020 17 February 2021
Wet  2010/11 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2003/04 52%  100% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 41% 47% 47% 47%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 40%  40% 40% 40%

  

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 August 2020 15 October 2020  15 December 2020 17 February 2021
Wet 2010/11 73%  100%  100% 100% 
Average 2005/06 58% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 2009/10 30% 48%  60% 65%
Extreme Dry 2002/03 30% 30% 30% 30%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 August 2020 15 October 2020 15 December 2020 17 February 2021
Wet 1996/97 100%  100%  100% 100% 
Average 1990/91 100% 100%  100% 100% 
Dry 2007/08 0% 27%  62% 70% 
Extreme Dry 2015/16 0% 0%  0% 1%

 

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).

Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2020/21 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 3 August 2020.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday 10 August 2020.