Current Outlook

26/27 opening seasonal determinations and low risk of spill declared for the Goulburn system 

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the first 2026/27 seasonal determinations, together with updated determination outlooks and the first risk of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

The Murray system starts 2026/27 with a seasonal determination of 29 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Goulburn system begins with 15 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system starts 2026/27 with 35 per cent HRWS and the Loddon system begins with 3 per cent HRWS.

The Broken and Bullarook systems both start the year with 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the opening seasonal determinations had benefited from recent wetter conditions across much of northern Victoria.

“Rainfall through May and June was a welcome change in an otherwise dry 2025/26,” Dr Bailey said.

“Inflows to many of the major storages during June were close to the long term average. The additional water in storage is important because reserves for 2026/27 were low at the end of autumn.

“While there have been improvements in the storages in the Broken and Bullarook systems, more rain and more inflow is needed before seasonal determinations can be made for the two systems.

Dr Bailey noted that improvements from rainfall forecast for early July would be included in the next seasonal determination update on July 15.

“Today’s announcement includes a declaration of a low risk of spill in the Goulburn system,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risk is below the 10 per cent threshold. Water held in Goulburn spillable water accounts will be made available for use or trade.

“The risk of spill in each of the Murray and Campaspe systems is about 30 per cent.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages.”

Outlook for the 2026/27 season

The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the NVRM website Additional Scenarios webpage.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements 

• The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be updated on Friday July 10, 2026.
• The next 2026/27 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday July 15, 2026. An updated outlook will be released with this announcement.