Current Outlook

Friday 15 July, 2022

Outlook for the 2022/23 season

The outlooks for 2022/23 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry    Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2021/22 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2014/15 100% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 100% 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 100% 100% 100% 100%

   

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 100%  100% 100% 100%
Average 2020/21 92% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 77% 98% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 70% 74% 78% 82%

   

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 92% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2009/10 73% 83% 84% 84%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 70% 70% 70% 70%

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 49% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 49% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2018/19 49% 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 39% 42% 43% 44%

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2012/13 100% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2007/08 24% 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 19% 23% 27% 29%

 

Wetter than average inflow conditions for a sustained period are needed in the Murray system before low-reliability water share seasonal determinations can commence.

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 August 2022.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Wednesday 10 August 2022.