Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2026/27 Seasonal Determination Outlook
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today released the first outlook for 2026/27 seasonal determinations.
Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said seasonal determinations against high-reliability water shares (HRWS) in the 2026/27 water year would depend heavily on weather and catchment conditions during winter and spring and the amount of carried over unused allocation.
“After consecutive years of below-average inflows, the storages are at their lowest levels since 2020. Resources for 2026/27 system operating requirements are secure in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems. However, reserves for seasonal determinations are not as large as recent years.
“Without an increase in the stored volumes, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems are likely to be low.
“Inflows into the southern Murray catchments and the Goulburn system this water year have been slightly better than the dry outlook scenario. A repeat of these inflows in 2026/27 would result in seasonal determinations of about 75 per cent in the Murray system and 50 per cent in the Goulburn by mid-February 2027.
“Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volumes carried over and the catchment conditions. Each system is likely to start at zero per cent HRWS.
“As annual systems, the seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems rely on catchment conditions and the volume of carried over allocation.
“Inflow conditions during 2026/27 will determine how seasonal determinations change during the year. A return to average inflow conditions should allow seasonal determinations to reach 100 per cent HRWS by mid-December 2026 in all systems.
“The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems at the start of 2026/27 will depend on how much water is released from the storages in the next few months. The risk of spill in the Murray system is expected to be about 35 per cent at the start of July 2026. In the Goulburn system, the risk is currently close to 10 per cent, and 30 per cent in the Campaspe system.
“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2025/26.”
Further Detail on Outlook for the 2026/27 Season
The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
- Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
45% |
71% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
37% |
44% |
82% |
100% |
| Dry |
12% |
33% |
48% |
68% |
| Extreme Dry |
5% |
13% |
31% |
35% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
40% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
12% |
41% |
78% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
16% |
35% |
45% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
1% |
8% |
13% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
13% |
68% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2% |
9% |
21% |
28% |
| Extreme Dry |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
52% |
71% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
49% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
16% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
40% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
8% |
41% |
78% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
18% |
31% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the NVRM Additional Scenarios webpage.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements (updated 17 March 2026)
- The final seasonal determination announcement for 2025/26 will be released on Wednesday, 1 April, 2026.
- An updated outlook for 2026/27 seasonal determinations will be released on Wednesday, 1 April, 2026.
- The first 2026/27 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday, 1 July 2026 and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.