Murray system seasonal determinations increase to 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2024/25 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system seasonal determination increases from 98 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.
The Broken system increases from 45 per cent HRWS to 47 per cent HRWS.
In the Campaspe system, the low-reliability water shares (LRWS) seasonal determination increases from 38 per cent LRWS to 41 per cent LRWS. The Campaspe system also has 100 per cent HRWS.
Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems are unchanged.
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said small resource improvements across several areas produced the increased seasonal determinations.
“The flows into the Murray storages, Lake Nillahcootie, and Lake Eppalock were slightly greater than we forecast at the last update,” he said.
“Lower than forecast evaporation and helped increase the amount available for allocation.
"There is still insufficient water available to make a seasonal determination in the Bullarook system.
“The deficit is closing. Customers with carryover allocation are able to access that water when needed.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday, 15 November are:
Outlook for the 2024/25 Season
The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
- Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2018/19 |
49% |
67% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
47% |
47% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2012/13 |
16% |
20% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
0% |
0% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the .
Trading Opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.
Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.
Customers can monitor trading opportunities from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday, 2 December 2024.