Current Outlook

Friday 15 November, 2019

Outlook for the 2019/20 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

“Flows into the Goulburn system are tracking slightly better that the ‘Dry’ outlook category,” Dr Bailey said.

“The conditions in the Murray system are slightly lower than the ‘Dry’ outlook category.

“The outlooks estimate the seasonal determination improvements based on monthly inflows to the major storages. Seasonal determinations can also increase if evaporation and river losses are lower than our assumptions. The saved volumes can be significant in the warmer months of the year.”

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 86% 100%
Average 2013/14 67% 83%
Dry 2008/09 52% 58%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 48% 50%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 80% 96%
Average 2003/04 66% 74%
Dry 2008/09 63% 66%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 62% 64%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 79% 95%
Average 2003/04 64% 66%
Dry 2008/09 61% 61%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 60% 60%

  

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 19% 44%
Average 2005/06 0% 17%
Dry 2009/10 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 2002/03 0% 0%

 

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).