Current Outlook

Thursday 15 February, 2018

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Goulburn, and Loddon systems are expected to start the 2018/19 water year with seasonal determinations of about 20 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS) or better.

The Murray system is expected to start with a seasonal determination of at least 35 per cent HRWS.

“The Campaspe system is expected to receive 100 per cent HRWS on the first 2018/19 announcement on July 1, 2018,” Dr Bailey said.

“Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volume carried over and catchment conditions.

“Carryover will be deliverable in systems under all scenarios.

“All of the northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid October 2018 under average inflow conditions.

“The 2018/19 outlooks reflect the establishment of operating reserves for the year to date. Northern Victorian storages have received less inflow compared to this time last year and the outlooks for high‑reliability water shares for the Murray, Broken, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems are lower.

“Flows into the major storages so far in 2017/18 have tracked between the average and dry scenarios. During 2016/17 flows were between the wet and average scenarios.

“Based on assumed use to the end of 2017/18 and the historical flow record, it is estimated that the probability of spill during 2018/19 in the Goulburn system could be about 30 per cent and about 60 per cent in the Murray system. The probability of spill in the Campaspe system is expected to be about 50 per cent at the start of 2018/19. Customers may wish to factor this into their plans for the remaining months of 2017/18.”

Further detail on Outlook for the 2018/19 season

The Resource Manager uses historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages.

The scenarios assessed are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 2 July 2018 15 August 2018 15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 81% 100% 100% 100%
Average 59% 76% 100% 100%
Dry 41% 50% 77% 100%
Extreme Dry 37% 38% 40% 45%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 2 July 2018  15 August 2018 15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 77% 100% 100% 100%
Average 37% 71% 100% 100%
Dry 27% 39% 60% 84%
Extreme Dry 22% 28% 35% 38%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 2 July 2018  15 August 2018  15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 40% 44% 100% 100%
Average 0% 44% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 22% 100%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 2 July 2018  15 August 2018  15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 33% 100% 100% 100%
Average 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 19% 34%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for the Goulburn and Loddon systems are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2018/19 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2017/18 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday 15 March 2018.
  • The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Tuesday 15 May 2018.
  • The first 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 2 July 2018 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated outlook.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.