Current Outlook

Monday 16 November, 2020

Outlook for the 2020/21 season

The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.  

“Flows into the Murray system were close to average in October and were near the wet inflow category in the Goulburn system,” Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey said.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 December 2020 15 February 2021
Wet 2011/12 100%  100%
Average 2018/19   99%  100%
Dry 2008/09   85%   94%
Extreme Dry 2006/07   81%   86%

   

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 December 2020.