Current Outlook

Thursday 15 February, 2024

Northern Victorian Resource Manager releases 2024/25 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2024/25 seasonal determinations.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the reserves established this season provided good foundations for water availability in 2024/25. 

“Allocations to low-reliability water shares (LRWS) are made only after securing resources for high-reliability water shares (HRWS) in the following water year,” Dr Bailey explained.

“The reserves ensure water is available for allocation at the start of 2024/25. Based on estimated use across the rest of this water year, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems are likely to be about 60 per cent HRWS or better.

“The Campaspe system has enough resource available to allocate 100 per cent HRWS under all conditions on the first 2024/25 announcement on July 1, 2024.

“Catchment conditions and the volume of carried over allocation will influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which have smaller storages and fewer reserves.

“Average inflow conditions should allow the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach seasonal determinations of 100 per cent HRWS by mid-August 2024. The same conditions would provide 100 per cent HRWS in the Broken system by mid-October.

 “The Murray and Goulburn systems need average or better inflow conditions for LRWS seasonal determinations. LRWS allocations in the Campaspe system are likely early in the season under average inflow conditions.

“Early season use that reduces the amount of water committed, plus continued inflows into the storages, will increase the chances of allocations to LRWS during 2024/25. Any scenarios in which LRWS is allocated in the Murray and Goulburn systems will see deductions from spillable water accounts.

“The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2024/25 will depend on how much water is released from the storages in the next few months to meet demands. The risk of spill in each system is expected to be at least 70 per cent at the start of July 2024.

“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2023/24.”

Outlook for the 2024/25 Season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

  • Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following table summarises possible Broken high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 99% 100% 100% 100%
Average 83% 97% 100% 100%
Dry 67% 71% 91% 100%
Extreme Dry 61% 61% 61% 62%

Goulburn and LoddonSystem Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 80% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 68% 83% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 64% 69% 75% 80%

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 38% 43% 100% 100%
Average 11% 43% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 2% 29% 49%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 3%

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 40% 100% 100% 100%
Average 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 18% 41%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks

  • The risk of spill in the Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday 11 March, 2024.
  • The next 2023/24 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday 15 March, 2024.
  • The 2024/25 seasonal determination outlooks will be updated on Wednesday 15 May, 2024.
  • The first 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 July 2024, and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.