Current Outlook

Monday 15 August, 2022

Outlook for the 2022/23 season

The outlooks for 2022/23 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

  • Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average           Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry    Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2020/21 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 94% 97% 100%

   

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2009/10 89% 90% 90%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 82% 82% 82%

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2018/19 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 57% 58% 59%

 

Sustained wetter than average inflow conditions and spills from Lake Hume are needed in the Murray system before low-reliability water share seasonal determinations can be announced.

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday September 1, 2022.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday September 12, 2022.