Current Outlook

Wednesday 15 May, 2024

Northern Victorian Resource Manager updates 2024/25 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today updated the outlook for 2024/25 seasonal determinations.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said reserves established in the northern Victorian water storages during 2023/24 provided a strong foundation for carried over allocation and 2024/25 seasonal determinations.

“Based on estimated carryover volumes from 2023/24, the opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system on 1 July are likely to be about 60 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS),” Dr Bailey said.

“Starting seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are expected to be around 70 per cent HRWS.

“The Campaspe system has enough resource to allocate 100 per cent HRWS on 1 July 2024. 

“Carryover and catchment conditions will influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which have smaller storages and fewer reserves.

“Average inflow conditions will allow the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach 100 per cent HRWS by mid-August 2024. Similar conditions in the Broken system would provide 100 per cent HRWS in mid-October.

“Average or better inflow conditions are needed for seasonal determinations to low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray and Goulburn systems during 2024/25. Average inflow conditions in the Campaspe system should provide LRWS seasonal determinations from mid-August 2024.

“Deductions from spillable water accounts will accompany LRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray and Goulburn systems.

“The risk of spill at the start of July 2024 is expected to be near 90 per cent in both the Murray and Goulburn systems. The risk of spill in the Campaspe system will be about 70 per cent.”

Dr Bailey said the chances of LRWS seasonal determinations generally improve with continued inflow to storages and early season allocation use.

Further detail on outlook for the 2024/25 Season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

  • Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following table summarises possible Broken high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 92% 100% 100% 100%
Average 77% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 69% 75% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 62% 66% 66% 66%

Goulburn and LoddonSystem Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 83% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 74% 89% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 71% 75% 81% 87%

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 38% 43% 100% 100%
Average 6% 43% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 4% 32% 54%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 3%

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 0% 100% 100% 100%
Average 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 3% 23%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The 2023/24 risk of spill update will be finalised on Tuesday 11 June 2024.
  • The first 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 July 2024, and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.