Current Outlook

Monday 15 July, 2019

Outlook for the 2019/20 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2016/17 45% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06  34%  59% 98% 100%
Dry 2015/16  25%  40% 48% 55%
Extreme Dry 2006/07  17%  21% 23% 29%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 45% 98% 100% 100%
Average 2003/04  33% 63% 90% 100%
Dry 2008/09 16% 34% 40% 43%
Extreme Dry 2006/07  9% 15% 18% 20%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2003/04 51%  100% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 34%  43% 43% 44%
Extreme Dry 2006/07  31% 31% 31% 31%

  

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 2010/11 69% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06  0% 77% 100% 100%
Dry 2009/10  0%  0% 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 2002/03  0%  0% 0% 0%

 

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday August 1, 2019.