Current Outlook

Wednesday 15 September, 2021

Outlook for the 2021/22 season

The outlooks for 2021/22 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry    Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 94% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 81% 87% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 77% 78% 83%

   

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 2010/11  100% 100% 100%
Average 2003/04 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 90% 92% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 86% 90% 93%

   

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2021/22 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday 1 October 2021.
  • The next risk of spill update will be released on Monday 11 October 2021.