Current Risk of Spill

Tuesday 10 November, 2020

Low risk of spill declared in the Murray system

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Murray system during 2020/21 was below the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration to be made.

“There is about a seven per cent risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Lake Hume,” Dr Bailey said.

“The low risk of spill declaration releases almost 102 gigalitres from spillable water accounts in the Murray system for use or trade.”

The risk of spill from Lake Hume decreased despite the storage holding more water than at the previous risk assessment and receiving strong inflows in October.

“We welcome the higher volume in Lake Hume,” Dr Bailey said.

“The likely lower catchment flows during spring and summer mean the risk of spill is decreasing, even with the current La Niña event.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. 

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The next announcement on the risk of spill and its effect on water availability will refer to the 2021/22 water year. The first risk of spill assessment in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems for the 2021/22 season will be announced on Thursday 1 July 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit 

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.