Current Risk of Spill

Friday 10 March, 2023

Murray System trade opportunity update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2022/23 trade opportunity from New South Wales to Victoria.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Murray system had reduced enough to enable a small volume of interstate trade.

“Victoria’s trading rules limit allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 gigalitres or the volume that keeps the risk of spill of Victoria’s share of the Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Releases from Lake Hume to meet downstream demand have lowered the risk of spill this water year below 50 per cent.

“There is now an opportunity for 12 gigalitres of allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria.”

Estimated risk of spill in 2023/24

“To assist entitlement holders with their decisions about carrying over allocation into 2023/24, risk of spill estimates for next season are included in today’s update,” Dr Bailey added.

“The risk of spill in the Goulburn and Murray systems is currently estimated to be about 80 per cent in 2023/24. The risk in the Campaspe system is about 65 per cent.

“The risk of spill in the Murray system is estimated to be greater than 50 per cent at the start of 2023/24, which means allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is likely to be restricted from the start of the new water year."

Dr Bailey reminded entitlement holders that the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems.

Further information about the estimated risk of spill in 2023/24 is available on the Northern Victoria Resource Manager website.

Next trade opportunity announcement

The opportunity for allocation trade is updated monthly with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can learn more about trade opportunities on the Victorian Water Register website.

The Murray system trade opportunity will be updated on Monday April 10, 2023.

Visit the MDBA websitefor Victorian shares of Murray storages.