Current Risk of Spill

Wednesday 10 November, 2021

Low risk of spill declared for the Goulburn system

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Goulburn system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2021/22 had fallen below the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration, but the risk in the Murray system remained greater than 10 per cent.

“Although Lake Eildon is above 85 per cent of capacity, the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2021/22 is now less than 10 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Goulburn customers will have the water in their spillable accounts made available for use or trade.

“In the Murray system, Lake Hume releases to manage the storage close to full supply have ceased in recent weeks as downstream demand began to increase. With further rainfall, releases may need to restart as flows into the storage increase and demand slows.

“Further deductions from the spillable water accounts will be confirmed in the November 15 seasonal determination update to account for releases made since mid-October."

Dr Bailey reiterated the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is less than 5 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 10 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray and Goulburn systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Friday 10 December 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the MDBA website..