15 July Outlook for the 2025/26 Season
The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.
The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:
- Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
- Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
- Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2025/2026 season.
Murray System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
74% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Above Average |
65% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
57% |
93% |
100% |
100% |
Below Average |
52% |
85% |
100% |
100% |
Dry |
49% |
67% |
83% |
97% |
Very Dry |
47% |
63% |
75% |
81% |
Extreme Dry |
40% |
43% |
45% |
48% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
66% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Above Average |
52% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
46% |
85% |
100% |
100% |
Below Average |
41% |
71% |
90% |
97% |
Dry |
37%
|
48% |
57% |
63% |
Very Dry |
35%
|
43% |
47% |
50% |
Extreme Dry |
33% |
36% |
38% |
39% |
Broken System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
65% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Above Average |
65% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
43% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Below Average |
10% |
42% |
100% |
100% |
Dry |
0% |
0% |
17% |
23% |
Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Above Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Below Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |