17 February Outlook for the 2025/26 Season
The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.
The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:
- Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
- Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
- Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2024/2025 season.
Murray System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
74% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
62% |
82% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
50% |
66% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
44% |
54% |
87% |
100% |
| Dry |
31% |
42% |
60% |
91% |
| Very Dry |
30% |
38% |
49% |
68% |
| Extreme Dry |
26% |
32% |
35% |
39% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
74% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
47% |
94% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
41% |
70% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
37% |
52% |
93% |
100% |
| Dry |
34% |
42% |
59% |
77% |
| Very Dry |
33% |
39% |
48% |
58% |
| Extreme Dry |
32% |
34% |
37% |
42% |
Broken System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
51% |
63% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
31% |
63% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
63% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
9% |
47% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
6% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
0% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |