Additional scenarios

15 November 2019 Outlook for the 2019/2020 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2019/2020 season.

Murray Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  86% 100%
Above Average  73% 96%
Average  67% 83%
Below Average  60% 74%
Dry  52%  58%
Very Dry   50%  54%
Extreme Dry   48%  50%

 Goulburn and Loddon Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  80% 96%
Above Average   70%  81%
Average   66%  74%
Below Average   64% 69%
Dry   63%  66%
Very Dry   63%  65%
Extreme Dry   62%  64%

Campaspe Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  79% 95%
Above Average   65%  69%
Average   64%  66%
Below Average  61%  61%
Dry   61%  61%
Very Dry  60%  60%
Extreme Dry   60%  60%

Broken Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  19% 44%
Above Average   4%  23%
Average   0%  17%
Below Average  0%  0%
Dry   0%  0%
Very Dry   0%  0%
Extreme Dry   0%  0%