Additional scenarios

 17 February Outlook for the 2025/26 Season

The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2024/2025 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2025 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 74%  100%  100%  100%  
Above Average 62%  82%  100%  100%  
Average 50%  66%  100%  100%  
Below Average 44%  54%  87%  100%  
Dry 31%  42%  60%  91% 
Very Dry 30%  38%  49%  68% 
Extreme Dry 26%  32% 35%  39% 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2025 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 74%  100%  100%    100% 
Above Average 47%  94%  100%    100% 
Average 41%  70%  100%    100% 
Below Average 37%  52%   93%  100% 
Dry 34%  42%  59%  77% 
Very Dry 33%  39%  48%  58% 
Extreme Dry 32% 34%  37%   42%

Broken System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2025 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 16 February 2026
Wet  51%  63% 100%   100%  
Above Average 31%   63%  100%   100%  
Average  0%   63% 100%   100%  
Below Average  0%  9% 47%  100%  
Dry   0%  0%   0%  6% 
Very Dry   0%  0%   0%    0%
Extreme Dry   0%  0%   0%    0%

Bullarook System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2025 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 16 February 2026
Wet  0%   100%  100%    100% 
Above Average  0%   100%  100%    100% 
Average  0%   100%  100%    100% 
Below Average  0%   0%  100%    100% 
Dry  0%   0%    0%  0% 
Very Dry  0%   0%    0%  0% 
Extreme Dry   0%  0%    0%  0%