1 July Outlook for the 2026/27 Season
The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.
The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:
- Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
- Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
- Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2026/27 season.
Murray Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2021/22 |
62% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
2011/12 |
49% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
44% |
75% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
2013/14 |
41% |
64% |
96% |
100% |
| Dry |
2024/25 |
39% |
49% |
58% |
71% |
| Very Dry |
2018/19 |
38% |
46% |
52% |
62% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
36% |
39% |
41% |
42% |
Goulburn Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
56% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
2021/22 |
44% |
87% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
39% |
70% |
99% |
100% |
| Below Average |
2005/06 |
35% |
56% |
76% |
87% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
26% |
40% |
46% |
49% |
| Very Dry |
2024/25 |
22% |
34% |
39% |
41% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
16% |
22% |
27% |
30% |
Campaspe Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
2000/01 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
79% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
2020/21 |
57% |
98% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2018/19 |
40% |
51% |
53% |
56% |
| Very Dry |
2024/25 |
36% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
35% |
36% |
36% |
36% |
Broken Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2022/23 |
46% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
2000/01 |
46% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
38% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
2019/20 |
1% |
40% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2024/25 |
0% |
0% |
1% |
6% |
| Very Dry |
2018/19 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Loddon Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
56% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
1995/96 |
44% |
87% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2000/01 |
39% |
70% |
99% |
100% |
| Below Average |
2019/20 |
30% |
56% |
79% |
87% |
| Dry |
2018/19 |
8% |
26% |
34% |
37% |
| Very Dry |
2024/25 |
3% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Bullarook Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
N/A |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
2023/24 |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Very Dry |
2015/16 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
2024/25 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |