Additional scenarios

16 May Outlook for the 2022/23 season

The outlooks for 2022/23 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

    • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
    • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
    • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
    • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
    • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
    • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
    • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2022/23 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2022 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 98% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 91% 100% 100% 100% 
Very Dry 90% 95% 100% 100% 
Extreme Dry 87% 89% 91% 94% 

   

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2022 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 82% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 61% 100% 100% 100%
Average 52% 88% 100% 100% 
Below Average 48% 74% 100% 100% 
Dry 46% 58% 82% 100% 
Very Dry 46% 52% 69% 82% 
Extreme Dry 45% 47% 50% 56% 

   

Campaspe System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2022 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 February 2023
Wet  100% 100% 100%  100%
Above Average 76% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 61% 99% 100% 100% 
Below Average 57% 73% 100% 100% 
Dry 56% 62% 74% 75% 
Very Dry 56% 56% 57% 57% 
Extreme Dry 56% 56% 56% 56% 

   

Broken System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2022 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 February 2023
Wet  24% 28% 100% 100% 
Above Average 24% 28% 100% 100% 
Average 21% 28% 100% 100% 
Below Average 11% 28% 45% 100% 
Dry 4% 12% 42% 100% 
Very Dry 3% 6% 21% 33% 
Extreme Dry 2% 5% 8% 11% 

   

Bullarook System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2022 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 44% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 15% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 0% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 0% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 0% 10% 28% 100% 
Very Dry 0% 0% 13% 37% 
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%