Additional scenarios

15 May Outlook for the 2024/25 season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2024/25 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 92% 100% 100%  100%
Above Average 81% 100% 100%   100%
Average 77% 100% 100%   100%
Below Average 72% 84% 100%   100%
Dry 69% 75% 100%   100%
Very Dry 66% 73% 94%  100%
Extreme Dry 62% 66% 66%  66% 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 100% 100% 100%  100% 
Above Average 92% 100% 100%  100% 
Average 83% 100% 100%  100% 
Below Average 78% 100% 100%  100% 
Dry 74% 89% 100%  100% 
Very Dry 73% 83% 100%  100%
Extreme Dry 71% 75% 81%   87%

Broken System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 38% 43% 100%  100% 
Above Average 21% 43% 100%  100% 
Average 6% 43% 100%  100% 
Below Average 0% 31% 100%  100% 
Dry 0% 4% 32%  54% 
Very Dry 0% 0% 14% 24% 
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0%  3% 

Bullarook System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2024 15 August 2024 15 October 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 0% 100% 100%  100% 
Above Average 0% 100% 100%  100% 
Average 0% 100% 100%   100%
Below Average 0% 22% 100%   100%
Dry 0% 0% 3%  23%
Very Dry 0% 0% 0% 0% 
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0%  0%