Additional scenarios

15 January 2019 Outlook for the 2019/2020 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2019/2020 season.

Murray Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 February 2020
Wet  85%
Above Average  68%
Average  65%
Below Average  63%
Dry   60%
Very Dry   59%
Extreme Dry   57%

 Goulburn and Loddon Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 February 2020
Wet  75%
Above Average   72%
Average   71%
Below Average  70%
Dry   69%
Very Dry   69%
Extreme Dry   69%

Campaspe Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 February 2020
Wet  70%
Above Average   68%
Average   68%
Below Average   68%
Dry   67%
Very Dry   66%
Extreme Dry   66%

Broken Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 February 2020
Wet  7%
Above Average   1%
Average   0%
Below Average   0%
Dry   0%
Very Dry   0%
Extreme Dry   0%