Additional scenarios

15 July Outlook for the 2025/26 Season

The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2025/2026 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 74% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 65% 100% 100% 100%
Average 57% 93% 100% 100%
Below Average 52% 85% 100% 100%
Dry 49% 67% 83% 97%
Very Dry 47% 63% 75% 81%
Extreme Dry 40% 43% 45% 48%

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 66% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 52% 100% 100% 100%
Average 46% 85% 100% 100%
Below Average 41% 71% 90% 97%
Dry

37%

48% 57% 63%
Very Dry

35%

43% 47% 50%
Extreme Dry 33% 36% 38% 39%

Broken System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 65% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 65% 100% 100% 100%
Average 43% 100% 100% 100%
Below Average 10% 42% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 17% 23%
Very Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

Bullarook System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2025 15 October 2025 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 100% 100% 100% 100%
Below Average 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%
Very Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%