Additional scenarios

15 February 2019 Outlook for the 2019/2020 Season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2019/2020 season.

Murray Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  40% 74%  100% 100% 
Above Average   30%  51%  100%  100%
Average   20%  42%  79%  100%
Below Average   6%  34%  59%  100%
Dry    0%   23%  41%  58%
Very Dry   0%  18%  36%  48%
Extreme Dry      0%  8%  9%  20%

 Goulburn Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet   43% 87%  100%  100% 
Above Average   29%  56%  100%  100%
Average   18%  44%  84%  100%
Below Average   11%  35%  61%  90%
Dry    6%   21%  39%  47%
Very Dry   4%  15%  32%  38%
Extreme Dry      2%  7%  14%  18%

Campaspe Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  100%  100%  100%  100% 
Above Average   38%  100%  100%  100%
Average   23%  70%  100%  100%
Below Average   18%  41%  87%  92%
Dry    16%   21%  31%  32%
Very Dry   16%  16%  17%  17%
Extreme Dry     16%   16%  16%  16%

Loddon Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  43%  87%  100%  100% 
Above Average   29%  56%  100%  100%
Average   12%  44%  84%  100%
Below Average   0%  35%  61%  90%
Dry   0%   3%  31%  37%
Very Dry   0%  0%  0%  0%
Extreme Dry     0%  0%  0%  0%

 Broken Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet   33% 76%  100%  100%
Above Average   0%  56%  100%  100%
Average   0%  6%  100%  100%
Below Average   0%  0%  24%  92%
Dry    0%   0%  0%  7%
Very Dry   0%  0%  0%  0%
Extreme Dry      0%  0%  0%  0%

 Bullarook Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet   12% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average   0%  100%  100%  100%
Average   0%  100%  100%  100%
Below Average   0%  27%  100%  100%
Dry    0%   0%  7%  39%
Very Dry   0%  0%  0%  0%
Extreme Dry     0%  0%  0%  0%