Additional scenarios

17 November for the 2025/26 Season

The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2025/2026 season.

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 83% 98%
Above Average 73% 83%
Average 69% 77%
Below Average 66% 72%
Dry 64% 67%
Very Dry 64% 66%
Extreme Dry 64% 65%

Broken System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 100% 100%
Above Average 73% 100%
Average 53% 100%
Below Average 46% 73%
Dry 40% 45%
Very Dry 38% 41%
Extreme Dry 37% 38%

Bullarook System Outlook for 2025/26 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 100% 100%
Above Average 18% 34%
Average 0% 11%
Below Average 0% 2%
Dry 0% 0%
Very Dry 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 0% 0%