Additional scenarios

Wednesday 1 April, 2026

1 April Outlook for the 2026/27 Season

The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions we/re produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2026/27 season.

Murray Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar Season 1 July 2026 17 August 2026  15 October 2026 15 December 2026 15 February 2027
Wet 2021/22 49% 79%  100% 100% 100%
Above Average 2011/12 45% 63%  100%  100%  100% 
Average 2023/24 37% 49%  92%  100%  100% 
Below Average 2013/14 30% 43%  70%   100% 100% 
Dry 2024/25 17% 38%  54%  65%  73% 
Very Dry 2018/19 15% 36%  48%  57%  63% 
Extreme Dry 2006/07 12% 32%  38%  40%  41% 

Goulburn Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar Season 1 July 2026  17 August 2026  15 October 2026   15 December 2026 15 February 2027
Wet 2010/11 40% 81%   100% 100%  100%
Above Average 2021/22 23% 50%  98%  100%  100% 
Average 2023/24 12% 41%  77% 100%  100% 
Below Average 2005/06 5% 32%  55%  76%  84% 
Dry 2015/16 0% 15%  35%  41%  44% 
Very Dry 2024/25 0% 9%  27%  33%  35% 
Extreme Dry 2006/07 0% 1%  7%  11%  12% 

Campaspe Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar Season 1 July 2026 17 August 2026   15 October 2026   15 December 2026  15 February 2027
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Above Average 2000/01 41% 100%  100%  100%  100% 
Average 2023/24 24% 76%  100%  100%  100% 
Below Average 2020/21 18% 45%  93%  100%  100% 
Dry 2018/19 16% 22%  34%  38%  40% 
Very Dry 2024/25 16% 16%  17%  18%  18% 
Extreme Dry 2006/07 16% 16%  16%  16%  16% 

Broken Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar Season 1 July 2026 17 August 2026   15 October 2026   15 December 2026  15 February 2027
Wet 2022/23 46% 55% 100% 100%  100%
Above Average 2000/01 9% 55%  100%  100%  100% 
Average 2023/24 0% 45%  100%  100%  100% 
Below Average 2019/20 0% 0%  34%  100%  100% 
Dry 2024/25 0% 0%  0%  0%  12% 
Very Dry 2018/19 0% 0%  0%  0%  0% 
Extreme Dry 2006/07 0% 0%  0%  0%  0% 

Loddon Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar Season 1 July 2026 17 August 2026   15 October 2026   15 December 2026 15 February 2027
Wet 2016/17 40% 81% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 1995/96 23% 50%  98%  100%  100% 
Average 2000/01 12% 41%  77%  100%  100% 
Below Average 2019/20 3% 32%  55%  76%   84%
Dry 2018/19 0% 8%  30%  40%  44% 
Very Dry 2024/25 0% 0%  4%  7%  8% 
Extreme Dry 2015/16 0% 0%  0%  0%  0% 

Bullarook Outlook for 2026/27 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar Season 1 July 2026 17 August 2026   15 October 2026  15 December 2026  15 February 2027
Wet 2016/17 0% 100% 100%  100%  100% 
Above Average N/A 0% 100%  100% 100%  100%
Average 2021/22 0% 100%  100%  100%  100%
Below Average 2023/24 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 0% 0%  0%  0%  0% 
Very Dry 2015/16 0% 0%  0%  0%  0%
Extreme Dry 2024/25 0% 0%  0%  0%  0%