Additional scenarios

15 September Outlook for the 2021/22 season

The outlooks for 2021/22 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

    • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
    • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
    • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
    • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
    • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
    • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
    • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2021/2022 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2021/2022 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 100% 100% 100%
Average 94% 100% 100%
Below Average 88% 100% 100%
Dry 81% 87% 100%
Very Dry 80% 84% 91%
Extreme Dry 77% 78% 83%

   

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2021/2022 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet  100% 100% 100%
Above Average  100% 100% 100%
Average 100% 100% 100%
Below Average 97% 100% 100%
Dry 90% 99% 100%
Very Dry 88% 94% 99%
Extreme Dry 86% 90% 93%