Additional scenarios

15 July 2020 Outlook for the 2020/21 season

The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2020/21 season.

Murray Outlook for 2020/21Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 August 2020  15 October 2020  15 December 2020 17 February 2021 
Wet  40%  95%  100% 100% 
Above Average  33% 74% 100% 100% 
Average  25% 49%  84% 100% 
Below Average  20% 42% 69% 84%
Dry  18%  35% 43% 48%
Very Dry  16% 33% 40% 44%
Extreme Dry  15%  15% 17% 20%

 Goulburn and Loddon Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  17 August 2020 15 October 2020   15 December 2020 17 February 2021 
Wet  63% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average   50%  98% 100%  100%
Average  46%  83% 100%  100%
Below Average   43%  70% 95%  100%
Dry   39%  50% 61%  68%
Very Dry   38%  45% 49%  53%
Extreme Dry   37%  39% 41%  43%

Campaspe Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  17 August 2020 15 October 2020   15 December 2020 17 February 2021 
Wet  100% 100% 100% 100% 
Above Average   87%  100% 100% 100% 
Average   52%  100% 100%  100%
Below Average   44% 87% 91%  93%
Dry   41% 47% 47% 47%
Very Dry   40% 40% 41% 41%
Extreme Dry  40% 40% 40% 40%

Broken Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  17 August 2020 15 October 2020   15 December 2020 17 February 2021 
Wet  73%  100% 100% 100% 
Above Average  73% 100% 100% 100%
Average  58% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average  40%  97% 100% 100%
Dry  30%  48% 60%  65%
Very Dry  30%  34% 41%  44%
Extreme Dry  30%  30% 30%  30%

Bullarook Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  17 August 2020  15 October 2020  15 December 2020 17 February 2021 
Wet  100%  100%  100% 100% 
Above Average  100% 100% 100% 100%
Average  100%  100% 100% 100%
Below Average   20%  100% 100% 100%
Dry   0%  27% 62% 70%
Very Dry   0% 19% 22%  31%
Extreme Dry   0%  0% 0%  1%