Additional scenarios

15 July Outlook for the 2021/22 season

The outlooks for 2021/22 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

    • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
    • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
    • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
    • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
    • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
    • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
    • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2021/2022 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2021/2022 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 August 2021 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 54% 84% 100% 100%
Above Average 46% 75% 100% 100%
Average 41% 62% 79% 98%
Below Average 37% 56% 71% 79%
Dry 35% 46% 55% 63%
Very Dry 34% 45% 50% 52%
Extreme Dry 31% 32% 33% 33%

   

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2021/2022 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 August 2021 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 67%  100% 100% 100%
Above Average 55%  100% 100% 100%
Average 49% 88% 100% 100%
Below Average 45% 75% 96% 100%
Dry 40% 53% 64% 70%
Very Dry 39% 46% 51% 56%
Extreme Dry 37% 39% 41% 43%

   

Campaspe System Outlook for 2021/2022 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 August 2021 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 100%  100% 100% 100%
Above Average 74%  100% 100% 100%
Average 41%   100% 100% 100%
Below Average 30% 74% 78% 80%
Dry 25% 34% 34% 35%
Very Dry 23% 24% 24% 24%
Extreme Dry 23% 23% 23% 23%

   

Broken System Outlook for 2021/2022 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 16 August 2021 15 October 2021 15 December 2021 15 February 2022
Wet 41%  100% 100% 100%
Above Average 41%  100% 100% 100%
Average 41%  100% 100% 100%
Below Average 26% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 14% 34% 47% 59%
Very Dry 10% 21% 26% 30%
Extreme Dry 9% 10% 11% 12%