Additional scenarios

15 July Outlook for the 2022/23 season

The outlooks for 2022/23 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

    • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
    • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
    • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
    • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
    • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
    • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
    • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2022/23 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Very Dry 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Extreme Dry 100% 100% 100% 100% 

   

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 98% 100% 100% 100%
Average 92% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 87% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 77% 98% 100% 100% 
Very Dry 74% 88% 97% 100% 
Extreme Dry 70% 74% 78% 82% 

   

Campaspe System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 92% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 78% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 73% 83% 84% 84% 
Very Dry 70% 71% 71% 71% 
Extreme Dry 70% 70% 70% 70% 

   

Broken System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 49% 100% 100% 100% 
Above Average 49% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 49% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 49% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 49% 100% 100% 100% 
Very Dry 43% 71% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 39% 42% 43% 44% 

   

Bullarook System Outlook for 2022/23 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2022 17 October 2022 15 December 2022 15 February 2023
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Average 100% 100% 100% 100% 
Below Average 64% 100% 100% 100% 
Dry 24% 100% 100% 100% 
Very Dry 20% 49% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 19% 23% 27% 29%