Additional scenarios

15 July 2019 Outlook for the 2019/2020 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2019/2020 season.

Murray Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  45% 100%  100% 100% 
Above Average  39% 82% 100% 100%
Average  34% 59%  98% 100%
Below Average  30% 49%  80% 94%
Dry  25% 40% 48%  55%
Very Dry  22% 39%  43%  48%
Extreme Dry   17% 21%  23%  29%

 Goulburn and Loddon Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet   45% 98%  100% 100%
Above Average   38%  79%  100%  100%
Average   33%  63%  90%  100%
Below Average   26%  47%  63%  71%
Dry    16%  34%  40%  43%
Very Dry   12%  28%  33%  36%
Extreme Dry     9%  15%  18%  20%

Campaspe Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  100% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average  85%  100%  100%  100%
Average  51%  100%  100%  100%
Below Average  39%  85%  89%  90%
Dry  34% 43%  43%  44%
Very Dry   31% 32% 32%  32%
Extreme Dry    31%   31%  31%  31%

Broken Outlook for 2019/2020 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 16 December 2019 17 February 2020
Wet   69% 100% 100% 100%
Above Average   18%  100%  100%  100%
Average   0%  77%  100%  100%
Below Average   0%  24% 57%  69%
Dry    0%  0%  0%  0%
Very Dry   0%  0%  0%  0%
Extreme Dry   0%  0%  0%  0%