Additional scenarios

15 August Outlook for the 2024/25 season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2024/2025 season.

Murray System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2024 16 December 2024  17 February 2025
Wet 100% 100%  100%
Above Average 100%  100%  100%
Average 100%  100%  100%
Below Average 100%  100%  100%
Dry 91% 100%  100%
Very Dry 84%  93% 100%
Extreme Dry 78%  79% 80% 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2024 16 December 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 100%  100% 100% 
Above Average 100%  100% 100% 
Average 100%  100% 100% 
Below Average 100%  100% 100% 
Dry 100%  100% 100% 
Very Dry 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 94%  99% 100%

Broken System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2024 16 December 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 100%  100%  100% 
Above Average 100%  100%  100% 
Average 100%  100%  100% 
Below Average 100%  100%  100% 
Dry 46%  100%  100% 
Very Dry 30% 38%  43% 
Extreme Dry 20%  20% 20% 

Bullarook System Outlook for 2024/25 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2024 16 December 2024 17 February 2025
Wet 100%  100%  100% 
Above Average 100%  100%  100% 
Average 100%  100%  100%
Below Average 100%  100%  100%
Dry 0%  1% 12%
Very Dry 0% 0% 0% 
Extreme Dry 0%  0% 0%