Additional scenarios

15 February 2020 Outlook for the 2020/21 season

The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975.

The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Above Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 30 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Below Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 70 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Very Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 95 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations through the 2020/21 season.

Murray Outlook for 2020/21Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2020 17 August 2020  15 October 2020  17 February 2021 
Wet  31% 56%  100%  100% 
Above Average  17% 41% 81% 100% 
Average  9% 33%  62%  100% 
Below Average  0% 24% 46%  87%
Dry  0% 11%  32%  45%
Very Dry  0% 9% 26%   39%
Extreme Dry  0% 0%  0%   9%

 Goulburn and Loddon Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2020  17 August 2020 15 October 2020   17 February 2021 
Wet  41% 76%  100%  100% 
Above Average  25%  50%  93%  100%
Average  14% 42%   72%  100%
Below Average  7%  33%  53%  79%
Dry  1%  17%  36%  45%
Very Dry  0%  11%  29%  36%
Extreme Dry  0%  3%  9%  14%

Campaspe Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2020  17 August 2020 15 October 2020   17 February 2021 
Wet  54% 100%  100%  100% 
Above Average  0%  80%  100% 100% 
Average  0%  14%  100%  100%
Below Average  0%  0%  41%  46%
Dry  0%  0%  0% 0%
Very Dry  0%  0%  0% 0%
Extreme Dry  0%  0%  0% 0%

Broken Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2020  17 August 2020 15 October 2020   17 February 2021 
Wet  33% 92%   100% 100% 
Above Average  0%  54%  100% 100%
Average  0% 0%  81% 100% 
Below Average  0% 0%   24%  65%
Dry  0% 0%  0%  0%
Very Dry  0% 0%   0%  0%
Extreme Dry  0%  0%  0%  0%

Bullarook Outlook for 2020/21 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2020  17 August 2020  15 October 2020  17 February 2021 
Wet  40% 100%  100%  100% 
Above Average  19% 100% 100%  100%
Average  0% 100%  100%   100%
Below Average  0%  98%  100%  100%
Dry  0%  0%  34%  72%
Very Dry  0%  0%  0%  20%
Extreme Dry  0%  0%  0%  0%