Final seasonal determination for 2019/20
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the final 2019/20 seasonal determinations.
Seasonal determinations in the Murray system increase from 65 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 66 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 78 per cent HRWS to 80 per cent HRWS.
The Broken system seasonal determination remains on 2 per cent HRWS and the Campaspe system stays on 80 per cent HRWS. The Bullarook system remains on 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there were some small resource improvements due to mild weather conditions over the past fortnight.
"Flows into the major storages since the last update were higher than our estimates, and evaporation and river losses were lower with the mild temperatures. This enabled the increases in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems announced today," Dr Bailey said.
"The small improvements in the Broken and Campaspe systems were not enough to change the seasonal determinations for those systems.
"The qualification of rights for the Broken system approved by the Minister for Water will continue until June 30, 2020. Customers in the Broken system have access to water in excess of the seasonal determination for critical domestic and stock use."
Dr Bailey noted the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks for April to June slightly favour wetter conditions and advised water users to consider available weather and climate information when planning their water needs for the rest of 2019/20 and into 2020/21.
"The outlooks for seasonal determinations in 2020/21 released in February 2020 remain in place on April 1," Dr Bailey said.
"There have been no significant changes to resource availability since February and the small improvements that have occurred have been given to increased seasonal determinations.
"The risks of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems are also unchanged.
"The outlook for 2020/21 seasonal determinations will be next updated on Friday May 15, 2020."
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, April 1 are:
| Murray |
66% |
0% |
| Broken |
2% |
0% |
| Goulburn |
80% |
0% |
| Campaspe |
80% |
0% |
| Loddon |
80% |
0% |
| Bullarook |
100% |
100% |
Trading opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.
The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owed about 211 GL to the Murray system at the time of issue. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations and have ceased but may recommence if more water is needed in the Murray system. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.
The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.
Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The outlook for 2020/21 seasonal determinations will be updated on Friday May 15, 2020.
- Opening seasonal determinations for 2020/21 will be announced on Wednesday July 1, 2020.
The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 94 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 88 per cent HRWS to 93 per cent HRWS.
The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 24 per cent HRWS to 30 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said recent rain helped to improve water availability.
“Most of northern Victoria received some rainfall during the first half of December,” said Dr Bailey.
“The rainfall across the northeast catchments increased the flows into the storages and in the downstream rivers,” said Dr Bailey. “The flows were higher than our conservative estimates, and together with lower evaporation from the storages, provided additional resource to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted these factors will influence seasonal determination improvements in the coming months.
“The seasonal determination outlook to 15 February 2019 is based on historical flows into the major storages under different scenarios,” said Dr Bailey. “These flows are generally low at this time of year. Seasonal determination assessments include estimates of evaporation and river losses.
“As we have seen, if actual losses are lower than these estimates, more water is available to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for summer rainfall did not favour wetter or drier conditions.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates there is an even chance of receiving above average rainfall during the December to February period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau has issued an El Niño Alert, meaning the chance of an El Niño forming in the coming months is around 70 per cent. It is likely that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is nearing its end, but it has little influence on rainfall from December to April.”
Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully. “Websites such as the Resource Manager (www.nvrm.net.au), the Victorian Water Register (www.waterregister.vic.gov.au) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (www.mdba.gov.au) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, December 17 are: