2026/27 opening seasonal determinations and low risk of spill declared for the Goulburn system
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the first 2026/27 seasonal determinations, together with updated determination outlooks and the first risk of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.
The Murray system starts 2026/27 with a seasonal determination of 29 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Goulburn system begins with 15 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system starts 2026/27 with 35 per cent HRWS and the Loddon system begins with 3 per cent HRWS.
The Broken and Bullarook systems both start the year with 0 per cent HRWS.
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the opening seasonal determinations had benefited from recent wetter conditions across much of northern Victoria.
“Rainfall through May and June was a welcome change in an otherwise dry 2025/26,” Dr Bailey said.
“Inflows to many of the major storages during June were close to the long term average. The additional water in storage is important because reserves for 2026/27 were low at the end of autumn.
“While there have been improvements in the storages in the Broken and Bullarook systems, more rain and more inflow is needed before seasonal determinations can be made for the two systems.
Dr Bailey noted that improvements from rainfall forecast for early July would be included in the next seasonal determination update on July 15.
“Today’s announcement includes a declaration of a low risk of spill in the Goulburn system,” Dr Bailey said.
“The risk is below the 10 per cent threshold. Water held in Goulburn spillable water accounts will be made available for use or trade.
“The risk of spill in each of the Murray and Campaspe systems is about 30 per cent.”
Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.
“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday July 1 are:
| Murray |
29% |
0% |
| Broken |
0% |
0% |
| Goulburn |
15% |
0% |
| Campaspe |
35% |
0% |
| Loddon |
3% |
0% |
| Bullarook |
0% |
0% |
Trading Opportunities
New water year trade opportunity opening times and trade limits are available at https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/about/news/542-reminder-upcoming-allocation-trade-closing-and-opening-times-3.
Trade from the Broken system re-opens at the start of each water year and is allowed when the Broken system’s Inter Valley Trade (IVT) account owes less than 1,500 ML to the Goulburn system. The current balance of the IVT account is about 1,160 ML.
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Hume and Dartmouth allows 200 GL of allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria. The volume available for trade is updated monthly with each risk of spill announcement.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be updated on Friday July 10, 2026.
- The next 2026/27 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday July 15, 2026. An updated outlook will be released with this announcement.