Current determination

Friday 1 April, 2022

Final 2021/22 seasonal determination update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the final 2021/22 seasonal determinations.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems remain unchanged at 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS).

Seasonal determinations in the Murray, Broken and Bullarook systems stay at the maximum possible 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there was very little change in resources over the past fortnight.

“Warm temperatures and very low rainfall across the northern Victoria catchments since the last assessment meant the volume available for allocation has not changed,” Dr Bailey said.

“The Goulburn system needed another 430 gigalitres of water to ensure full allocations to high‑reliability water shares in 2022/23. While an allocation to low-reliability water shares in the Goulburn system was not possible, there are good reserves for high-reliability water shares seasonal determinations in 2022/23.

“The outlook for 2022/23 seasonal determinations will be next updated on Monday May 16, 2022."

 The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook for the April to June period does not strongly favour above- or below-average rainfall across northern Victoria. La Niña conditions are weakening in the tropical Pacific and outlooks indicate a return to neutral conditions in late autumn.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday 1 April are:
Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 100%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

 

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. Trade adjustments will occur in Dartmouth where there is storage capacity available before occurring in Hume.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 35 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria to keep the risk of spill in Hume and Dartmouth below 50 per cent. This volume is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

An interim rule for trade from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia is in effect from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2022, replacing the previous rule that had been in place since 2013. The interim trade rule means that since December 15 2021, net trade is capped and the inter-valley trade account balance is being run down.

In accordance with the interim trade rule cap, since 15 December, additional trade opportunity is only created when allocation is traded back from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales or South Australia into the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe or Loddon systems. More details about the new trade rule are available at the Victorian Water Register website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Victorian Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next risk of spill update will be released on Monday 11 April 2022.
  • The seasonal determination outlook for 2022/23 will be updated on Monday 16 May 2022.