2019/20 seasonal determination and outlook update
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 16 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 26 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 25 per cent HRWS to 32 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system moves from 37 per cent HRWS to 48 per cent HRWS.
Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0 per cent HRWS. The Bullarook system remains on 100% HRWS and 100% low-reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Andrew Shields said recent rainfall in the catchment areas had increased the flows into the major storages and improved the volume of water available.
“Flows into the storages were steadily receding in early August but the catchments responded well to rainfall over the last week," he said.
“With the seasonal determinations rising above 30 per cent in the Goulburn system, early season reserves for 2020/21 are being established. These reserves will be fully established when the Goulburn system seasonal determination is 50 per cent."
Mr Shields said there was some improvement in the volume of water available in the Broken system that was almost sufficient to ensure carried over allocation can be delivered throughout 2019/20.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria is more likely during the August to October period,” Mr Shields said.
Mr Shields advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Thursday, August 15 are:
| Murray |
26% |
0% |
| Broken |
0% |
0% |
| Goulburn |
32% |
0% |
| Campaspe |
48% |
0% |
| Loddon |
32% |
0% |
| Bullarook |
100% |
100% |
Trading opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.
The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 224 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.
The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.
Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA's website.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 2 September, 2019.
The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 94 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 88 per cent HRWS to 93 per cent HRWS.
The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 24 per cent HRWS to 30 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said recent rain helped to improve water availability.
“Most of northern Victoria received some rainfall during the first half of December,” said Dr Bailey.
“The rainfall across the northeast catchments increased the flows into the storages and in the downstream rivers,” said Dr Bailey. “The flows were higher than our conservative estimates, and together with lower evaporation from the storages, provided additional resource to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted these factors will influence seasonal determination improvements in the coming months.
“The seasonal determination outlook to 15 February 2019 is based on historical flows into the major storages under different scenarios,” said Dr Bailey. “These flows are generally low at this time of year. Seasonal determination assessments include estimates of evaporation and river losses.
“As we have seen, if actual losses are lower than these estimates, more water is available to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for summer rainfall did not favour wetter or drier conditions.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates there is an even chance of receiving above average rainfall during the December to February period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau has issued an El Niño Alert, meaning the chance of an El Niño forming in the coming months is around 70 per cent. It is likely that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is nearing its end, but it has little influence on rainfall from December to April.”
Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully. “Websites such as the Resource Manager (www.nvrm.net.au), the Victorian Water Register (www.waterregister.vic.gov.au) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (www.mdba.gov.au) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, December 17 are: