2019/20 seasonal determination update
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.
Seasonal determinations in the Murray system remain unchanged on 56 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS).
The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 66 per cent HRWS to 68 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system moves from 65 per cent HRWS to 66 per cent HRWS.
The Broken system seasonal determination remains on 0 per cent HRWS.
The Bullarook system remains on 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said dry conditions continued to affect water availability across northern Victorian systems.
“Hot and dry conditions have continued since the previous update of seasonal determinations,” Dr Bailey said.
“Actual system losses are tracking very close to our assumptions across the systems. The small increases announced for the Goulburn, Loddon and Campaspe systems came from slightly better than expected performance.
“Similar benefits were not available in the Murray or Broken systems.”
The shortfall in the Broken system reduced marginally over the past fortnight, but there remains about 1,700 megalitres to gain before a positive seasonal determination can be made.
“The Minister for Water qualified rights in the Broken system from 1 January 2020,” Dr Bailey said.
“The qualification allows customers access to water for critical domestic and stock use while the seasonal determination remains below 50 per cent HRWS.”
Dr Bailey noted the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks for January to March do not favour wetter or drier conditions and advised water users to consider available weather and climate information when planning their water needs for the rest of 2019/20 and into 2020/21.
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, January 15 are:
| Murray |
56% |
0% |
| Broken |
0% |
0% |
| Goulburn |
68% |
0% |
| Campaspe |
66% |
0% |
| Loddon |
68% |
0% |
| Bullarook |
100% |
100% |
Trading opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.
The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owed about 201 GL to the Murray system (at the time of issue). The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations will continue through January. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website..
The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.
Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday February 3, 2020.
- The first outlook for 2020/21 seasonal determinations will be released on Monday February 17, 2020.
The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 94 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 88 per cent HRWS to 93 per cent HRWS.
The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 24 per cent HRWS to 30 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said recent rain helped to improve water availability.
“Most of northern Victoria received some rainfall during the first half of December,” said Dr Bailey.
“The rainfall across the northeast catchments increased the flows into the storages and in the downstream rivers,” said Dr Bailey. “The flows were higher than our conservative estimates, and together with lower evaporation from the storages, provided additional resource to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted these factors will influence seasonal determination improvements in the coming months.
“The seasonal determination outlook to 15 February 2019 is based on historical flows into the major storages under different scenarios,” said Dr Bailey. “These flows are generally low at this time of year. Seasonal determination assessments include estimates of evaporation and river losses.
“As we have seen, if actual losses are lower than these estimates, more water is available to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for summer rainfall did not favour wetter or drier conditions.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates there is an even chance of receiving above average rainfall during the December to February period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau has issued an El Niño Alert, meaning the chance of an El Niño forming in the coming months is around 70 per cent. It is likely that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is nearing its end, but it has little influence on rainfall from December to April.”
Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully. “Websites such as the Resource Manager (www.nvrm.net.au), the Victorian Water Register (www.waterregister.vic.gov.au) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (www.mdba.gov.au) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, December 17 are: