Current Determination

Monday 17 September, 2018

2018/19 seasonal determinations increase in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken systems

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations and outlooks.

The Murray system moves from 71 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 78 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 56 per cent HRWS to 70 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 4 per cent HRWS to 9 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system increases from 69 per cent HRWS to 100 per cent HRWS and 25 per cent of low‑reliability water shares.

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the improvements came from more water reaching the major storages than was estimated.

“Flows into the major storages have been higher than anticipated in the last fortnight, even without significant rainfall,” Dr Bailey said.

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks continue to favour drier conditions.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall is more likely across all of northern Victoria during the October to December period,” Dr Bailey said.

“The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could form during spring. Both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically reduces rainfall in south-eastern Australia.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday 17 September are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 78% 0%
Broken 9% 0%
Goulburn 70% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 70% 0%
Bullarook 100% 25%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on October 10, 2018.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 224 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations commenced in August and have continued in September. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 October 2018.
  • The next risk of spill in the Murray system will be issued on Wednesday 10 October 2018.