2019/20 seasonal determination update
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 38 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 40 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 48 per cent HRWS to 50 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system moves from 54 per cent HRWS to 56 per cent HRWS.
Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0 per cent HRWS. The Bullarook system remains on 100% HRWS and 100% low-reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said flows into the major storages across northern Victoria were declining as recent rainfall totals remained low.
“Flows into the storages were low, but are slightly higher than our conservative estimates, which improved available resources and allowed the increased seasonal determinations," Dr Bailey said.
“We are nearing the end of the period with historically higher flows. Without significant rainfall, large improvements in the seasonal determinations are unlikely.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks show below-average rainfall across northern Victoria is more likely between October and December.”
Dr Bailey welcomed the full establishment of the early season reserve in the Goulburn system, which allows all resource improvements in the system to be directed to high-reliability water share seasonal determinations.
Dr Bailey advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday, October 15 are:
| Murray |
40% |
0% |
| Broken |
0% |
0% |
| Goulburn |
50% |
0% |
| Campaspe |
56% |
0% |
| Loddon |
50% |
0% |
| Bullarook |
100% |
100% |
Trading opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.
The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 251 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.
The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero
Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday November 1, 2019.
The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.
The Murray system moves from 94 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS.
The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 88 per cent HRWS to 93 per cent HRWS.
The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 24 per cent HRWS to 30 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).
Resource Manager Mark Bailey said recent rain helped to improve water availability.
“Most of northern Victoria received some rainfall during the first half of December,” said Dr Bailey.
“The rainfall across the northeast catchments increased the flows into the storages and in the downstream rivers,” said Dr Bailey. “The flows were higher than our conservative estimates, and together with lower evaporation from the storages, provided additional resource to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted these factors will influence seasonal determination improvements in the coming months.
“The seasonal determination outlook to 15 February 2019 is based on historical flows into the major storages under different scenarios,” said Dr Bailey. “These flows are generally low at this time of year. Seasonal determination assessments include estimates of evaporation and river losses.
“As we have seen, if actual losses are lower than these estimates, more water is available to allocate.”
Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks for summer rainfall did not favour wetter or drier conditions.
“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates there is an even chance of receiving above average rainfall during the December to February period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau has issued an El Niño Alert, meaning the chance of an El Niño forming in the coming months is around 70 per cent. It is likely that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is nearing its end, but it has little influence on rainfall from December to April.”
Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully. “Websites such as the Resource Manager (www.nvrm.net.au), the Victorian Water Register (www.waterregister.vic.gov.au) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (www.mdba.gov.au) provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use.”
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, December 17 are: