2014/15 Risk of Spill Announcements

10 November 2014 - Declaration of low risk of spill for the Goulburn System

A low risk of spill was today declared in the Goulburn system by the Resource Manager for northern Victoria.

No declaration was made in the Murray system.

Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2014/15 had fallen below the 10 per cent threshold for a declaration to be made.

"The risk of spill decreased under the effects of strong demand for water from Lake Eildon and very low inflows," Dr Bailey said. "The water held in spillable water accounts in the Goulburn system will now become available for use or trade.

"Spillable water accounts in the Murray system remain quarantined from use or trade.

"There were no spills in the Murray system during October, and the risk of spill is 51 per cent. The risk is falling as inflows have been low and releases are reducing the volume held in Lake Hume."

He said the Victorian share of Lake Hume was 97 per cent of capacity at the end of October and the total volume in Lake Hume was about 73 per cent of capacity at the time.

Dr Bailey stressed the risk of spill assessment was not about the probability of flooding in these systems. He reminded the public that the risk of spill relates to the availability of water in spillable water accounts and does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from NSW to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent, whichever is the lesser.

The risk of spill in the Victorian Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, so trade into Victoria from NSW is limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to NSW. The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on November December 10 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill assessment in the Murray system will be updated on December 10.

For more information about the risk of spill, go to http://www.nvrm.net.au/. Information about the volumes held in spillable water accounts and water storages levels is available on the following websites: waterregister.vic.gov.au, http://www.mdba.gov.au/ and http://www.g-mwater.com.au/.

10 October 2014 - Declaration of low risk of spill for the Campaspe System

A low risk of spill was today declared in the Campaspe system by the Resource Manager for northern Victoria.

No declaration was made in the Murray and Goulburn systems.

Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey made the announcement, saying the risk of spill in the Campaspe system during 2014/15 had fallen below the 10 per cent threshold for a declaration to be made.

"Water held in spillable water accounts (SWAs) in the Campaspe system will become available for use or trade," Dr Bailey said.

"Spillable water accounts in the Murray and Goulburn systems remain quarantined from use or trade.

"The risk of spill in the Murray system remains high at 92 per cent. The Murray system experienced a 47 GL spill from spillable water accounts during September."

He said the Victorian share of Lake Hume was full at the end of September and the total volume in Lake Hume was about 78 per cent of capacity at the time.

"This was an internal spill, in which new inflows could not be stored in the full Victorian share and went to the New South Wales (NSW) share instead," he said.

Spillable water accounts in the Murray system will be debited by about 22 per cent on October 15 as a result of this spill.

"The risk of spill in the Goulburn system is about 15 per cent and Lake Eildon is holding 87 per cent of capacity," Dr Bailey said.

"The risk of spill in the Goulburn system is falling as inflows have been low and releases are starting to lower the storage volume."

Dr Bailey stressed the risk of spill assessment was not about the probability of flooding in these systems.

"The risk of spill relates to the availability of water in spillable water accounts. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," he said.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from NSW to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent, whichever is the lesser.

The risk of spill in the Victorian Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, so trade into Victoria from NSW is limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to NSW. The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on November 10 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

Next Announcement on Risk of Spill

The risk of spill assessment in the Murray and Goulburn systems will be updated on November 10.

For more information about the risk of spill go to www.nvrm.net.au.

Information about the volumes held in spillable water accounts and water storages levels is available on the following websites; waterregister.vic.gov.au, http://www.mdba.gov.au/ and http://www.g-mwater.com.au/.

10 September 2014 - Risk of spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe

The risk of spill from key storages in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems during 2014/15 remains greater than 10 per cent.

Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey made the announcement today, saying a low risk of spill cannot be declared in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems in September.

"The risk of spill in the Murray system this season is currently greater than 90 per cent," Dr Bailey said.

"The risk in the Goulburn is greater than 30 per cent. The risk of spill in the Campaspe is about 15 per cent.

"The risk in all three systems is greater than the 10 per cent risk that is the threshold for a declaration. Any water in spillable water accounts remains quarantined from use or trade.

"Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are holding about 87 per cent and 74 per cent of their capacities respectively."

Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) share the volume in Lake Hume under the Murray-Darling Basin Agreement. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority updates the state shares monthly.

Dr Bailey said the Victorian share of Lake Hume was about 95 per cent full at the end of August. The total volume in Lake Hume was about 74 per cent of capacity at that time.

"The risk of spill is falling in the Goulburn and Campaspe systems," he said.

"Inflows to Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock have waned over the last month.

"Victoria's share of Lake Hume is nearly full, so the risk remains high in the Murray."

Dr Bailey stressed that the risk of spill assessment was not about the probability of flooding in these systems.

"The risk of spill relates to the availability of water in spillable water accounts It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from NSW to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent, whichever is the lesser.

The risk of spill in the Victorian Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, so trade into Victoria from NSW is limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to NSW. The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on October 10 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

Next Announcement on Risk of Spill

The risk of spill assessment in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on October 10.

For more information about the risk of spill go to www.nvrm.net.au.

Information about the volumes held in spillable water accounts and water storages levels is available on the following websites; waterregister.vic.gov.au, http://www.mdba.gov.au/ and http://www.g-mwater.com.au/.

11 August 2014 - Risk of spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe

The risk of spill from key storages in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems during 2014/15 remains greater than 10 per cent.

Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey made the announcement today saying a low risk of spill cannot be declared in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems in August.

“The risk of spill in Murray this season is currently greater than 90 per cent while the Goulburn and Campaspe systems are greater than 50 per and 30 per cent respectively,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risk of spill in all three systems is much greater than the 10 per cent risk that is the threshold for a declaration. Any water in spillable water accounts remains quarantined from use or trade.

“Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are holding about 85 per cent and 74 per cent of their capacities respectively.”

The volume in Lake Hume is shared between Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) according to the Murray-Darling Basin Agreement. The state shares are updated monthly by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

Dr Bailey said the Victorian share of Lake Hume was about 87 per cent of capacity at the end of July, with the total volume in the lake actually about 69 per cent of capacity at that time.

“The inflows that occur over the next two months will be important to the timing of the declarations this season, because the highest inflows have mainly occurred during this period,” he said.

“This assessment is related to the availability of water in spillable water accounts, not the probability of flooding occurring in these systems.”

Trading opportunities


Allocation trade from NSW to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent, whichever is the lesser.

The risk of spill in the Victorian Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, so trade into Victoria from NSW is limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to NSW. The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on September 10 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

Next announcement on risk of spill


The risk of spill assessment in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on September 10.

For more information about the risk of spill go to www.nvrm.net.au.

Information about the volumes held in spillable water accounts and water storages levels is available on the following websites; waterregister.vic.gov.au, http://www.mdba.gov.au/ and http://www.g-mwater.com.au/.

 

10 July 2014 - Risk of spill update for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe

The risk of spill from key storages in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems during 2014/15 remains greater than 10 per cent.

The risk of spill was updated today by the Resource Manager for northern Victoria.

“A low risk of spill cannot be declared in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this month,” Resource Manager Mark Bailey said.

“The risk of spill in each system this season is currently greater than 50 per cent, which is much greater than the 10 per cent risk that is the threshold for a declaration. Any water in spillable water accounts remains quarantined from use or trade.

“Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are both holding about 75 per cent of their capacity.”

Dr Bailey said at the end of June, the Victorian share of Lake Hume was about 67 per cent of capacity, with the total Lake Hume volume about 52 per cent of capacity.

“The inflows that occur over the next three months will be important to the timing of the declarations this season, because highest inflows have mainly occurred during this period,” he said.

Dr Bailey stressed the risk of spill does not describe the risk of flooding in the region.

“This assessment is related to the availability of water in spillable water accounts, not the probability of flooding occurring in these systems,” Dr Bailey said.

Trading opportunities

 

Allocation trade from New South Wales (NSW) to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent, whichever is the lesser.

The risk of spill in the Victorian Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, so trade into Victoria from NSW is limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to NSW.

The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on August 11 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill assessment in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on August 11.

For further information about the risk of spill go to www.nvrm.net.au

Information about the volumes held in spillable water accounts and water storages levels is available on the following web sites; waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au.

 

1 July 2014 - Risk of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

A low risk of spill declaration is not currently possible for the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems. Dr Bailey said this was because the probabilities of spill from Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock were all higher than the 10 per cent threshold for a declaration.

Next Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

An updated probability of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on July 10. The next seasonal determination announcement will be released on July 15 and will include an updated seasonal outlook.

For further information go to www.nvrm.net.au, waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au