2020/21 Risk of Spill Announcements

10 November 2020 - Low risk of spill declared in the Muray system

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Murray system during 2020/21 was below the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration to be made.

“There is about a seven per cent risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Lake Hume,” Dr Bailey said.

“The low risk of spill declaration releases almost 102 gigalitres from spillable water accounts in the Murray system for use or trade.”

The risk of spill from Lake Hume decreased despite the storage holding more water than at the previous risk assessment and receiving strong inflows in October.

“We welcome the higher volume in Lake Hume,” Dr Bailey said.

“The likely lower catchment flows during spring and summer mean the risk of spill is decreasing, even with the current La Niña event.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. 

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Victorian Water Register website .

Next announcement on risk of spill

The next announcement on the risk of spill and its effect on water availability will refer to the 2021/22 water year. The first risk of spill assessment in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems for the 2021/22 season will be announced on Thursday 1 July 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit  www.nvrm.net.au 

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.

12 October 2020 - Low risk of spill declared in the Campaspe system

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Campaspe system.

The risk of spill in the Murray system during 2020/21 remained above the 10 per threshold needed to declare a low risk of spill.

“The risk of spill in the Campaspe system during 2020/21 is below 10 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Flows into Lake Eppalock have been below-average flows since the start of the water year in July.

“The risk of spill from Lake Hume in the Murray system during 2020/21 is about 20 per cent.”

The risks of spill decreased despite both storages holding more water since the September assessment and receiving strong flows in the first week of October.

“Improved storage volumes are welcome, but the rate of filling since the start of the water year and the passage of time means the risks of spill have decreased,” Dr Bailey said.

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. 

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Victorian Water Register website .

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2020/21 will be updated on Tuesday November 10 2020.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit  www.nvrm.net.au 

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.

10 September 2020 - 2020/21 Risk of Spill update for Murray and Campaspe systems

Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey said today the risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems during 2020/21 had reduced, but remained above the 10 per cent threshold needed to declare a low risk of spill.

“The risk of spill from Lake Hume in the Murray system during 2020/21 has fallen to about 25 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“In the Campaspe system, the risk of spill from Lake Eppalock is 12 per cent.”

The risks of spill decreased despite both storages holding more water since the August assessment.

“While the improved storage volumes are welcome, the slow rate of filling and the passage of time meant the risks of spill decreased,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risks of spill will continue to decline if rainfall remains sparse in the Murray and Campaspe catchments.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray or Campaspe systems this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. 

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Victorian Water Register website .

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems in 2020/21 will be updated on Monday October 12 2020.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit  www.nvrm.net.au 

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.

10 August 2020 - 2020/21 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Goulburn system.

The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems during 2020/21 remained above the 10 per threshold needed to declare a low risk of spill.

“The risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2020/21 has fallen below 10 per cent after flows into Lake Eildon declined during July,” Dr Bailey said 

“The below-average rainfall during July caused flows to all major storages to decline,” Dr Bailey said. “The risk of spill in the Murray system from Victoria’s share of the volume in Lake Hume reduced to about 40 per cent and the risk of spill from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system reduced to about 25 per cent.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. 

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Victorian Water Register website .

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems in 2020/21 will be updated on Thursday September 10, 2020.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit  www.nvrm.net.au 

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.

10 July 2020 - 2020/21 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2020/21 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said the risks of spill had not changed since the July 1, 2020 assessment.

“Victoria’s share of the volume in Lake Hume gives the Murray system about a 60 per cent risk of spill,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 20 per cent and the risk of spill is about 50 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2020/21 will be updated on Monday 10 August 2020.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.

10 June 2020 - 2020/21 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2020/21 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said storage levels were rising after recent rainfall and the conclusion of the 2019/20 irrigation season.

“Rainfall over the last two months has increased the flows into the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe storages,” Dr Bailey said.

“The improved storage volumes warranted an update on the risk of spill in each system to help entitlement holders plan their portfolios for 2020/21.

“Victoria’s share of the volume in Lake Hume gives the Murray system about a 60 per cent risk of spill.

“The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 20 per cent. The risk of spill from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system is about 50 per cent.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2020/21 will be updated on Wednesday July 1, 2020.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing.