Update of Seasonal Determinations for 2012/13
| Announcement Date: |
15 Aug 2012 |
| Next Announcement Due: |
3 Sep 2012 |
Determination Data
Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.
| Murray |
52% |
+11% |
0% |
Not declared |
| Broken |
36% |
+10% |
0% |
- |
| Goulburn |
100% |
+12% |
0% |
Not declared |
| Campaspe |
100% |
0% |
25% |
Not declared |
| Loddon |
100% |
+12% |
0% |
- |
| Bullarook Creek |
100% |
0% |
100% |
- |
Further Information
The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today announced an update to the seasonal determinations for the 2012/13 season.
The Murray system seasonal determination is 52% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS), an increase of 11%. The seasonal determination in the Goulburn and Loddon systems has increased by 12% to be 100% HRWS. The Broken system seasonal determination has increased by 10% to be 36% HRWS. Campaspe system customers have a seasonal determination of 100% HRWS and a seasonal determination of 25% of low-reliability water shares (LRWS), an increase of 7% LRWS.
The Bullarook system seasonal determination remains unchanged at 100% HRWS and 100% LRWS.
“Inflows to northern Victorian catchments were increased by recent light rainfall, and should continue for several weeks. These inflows have directly contributed to the increases in seasonal determinations announced today,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “Unregulated flows downstream of the major storages are being used to fill distribution systems ahead of emerging irrigation demand. The use of unregulated flows increases the volume of water available in storage to make seasonal determinations.”
“Today’s announcement is the first time since 1997/98 that the seasonal determination in the Goulburn system has been 100% HRWS at the traditional 15 August start of the irrigation season,” Dr Bailey added.
Approximately 46,000 ML has been pre-released from Lake Eildon in the past fortnight. These releases are treated as a spill from storage and the volumes in spillable water accounts in the Goulburn system have been reduced as a result.
“No spills have occurred from Lake Dartmouth in the Murray system or Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system. Both storages are still rising and hold more than 90% of capacity, which indicates a high risk of spill exists. Any pre-release or physical spill from these storages will reduce spillable water account volumes in their respective systems, allowing all storage inflows to contribute to increased seasonal determinations.”
Outlook for the 2012/13 Season
Under average conditions, seasonal determinations in the Murray system are expected to reach 100% HRWS by 15 December 2012. Under dry conditions, the season determination in the Murray system is expected to be 100% by 15 February 2013.
In the Broken system, customers are expected to receive a seasonal determination of 100% HRWS by 15 December 2012 under dry conditions. Under average conditions, the seasonal determination is expected to reach 100% HRWS during spring. Low-reliability water shares are also expected to receive a seasonal determination of 100% in late spring under average conditions and by 15 February 2013 under dry conditions.
“Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring. If inflows result in water being debited from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage, the chances of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares improve,” said Dr Bailey.
Under average conditions in the Campaspe system, customers are expected to receive a seasonal determination of 100% LRWS by 15 December 2012.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
The next seasonal determination announcement for 2012/13 will be issued on Monday 3 September 2012.
The next assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Monday 10 September 2012.