Seasonal Determination update

Monday 16 January, 2017

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the 2016/17 seasonal determinations in all systems remained unchanged.

Seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems stay at 100 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS). The Broken, Campaspe and Bullarook systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there had been continued improvement in water resource availability in the Murray system, but little change in the Goulburn system since the last update on December 15.

“December inflows into the Murray system were higher than estimated and the inflows forecast for January have increased,” Dr Bailey said.

“These improvements have reduced the shortfall volume needed in the Murray system to meet all system operating needs and high-reliability water shares in 2017/18 to 110 gigalitres.

“Being only 110 gigalitres short of allocating low-reliability water shares means the Murray system has good volumes in reserve for 2017/18.

“The Goulburn system shortfall to announcing an allocation of low-reliability water shares in 2016/17 is about 565 gigalitres.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, January 16 are:

Water System High-reliability water share Low-reliability water share
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 100%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

 

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

Trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems is restricted as the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than 200 GL. Trading will be available if backtrade occurs or when water from the Goulburn inter-valley trade account is delivered to the Murray system.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Delivery from the inter valley trade accounts in the Goulburn and Broken systems has commenced. This will reduce the volume in the accounts and create further trading opportunities.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.

The trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Barmah Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website. Trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream is restricted to backtrade, which is the volume of allocation trade from downstream of the Barmah Choke to upstream.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next risk of spill update for the Murray system will be released on Friday February 10, 2017.
  • The next 2016/17 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday February 15, 2017.
  • The first outlook for 2017/18 seasonal determinations will also be released on Wednesday February 15, 2017.