2018/19 seasonal determinations increase in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken systems

Monday 3 September, 2018

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 59 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 71 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 47 per cent HRWS to 56 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 1 per cent HRWS to 4 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system increases from 19 per cent HRWS to 69 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the improvements came after rainfall in the last fortnight.

“The increased seasonal determinations announced today follow improvement in storage volumes after rain in the catchment areas,” Dr Bailey said.

“Continued seasonal determination improvements during spring will depend on rainfall. The catchments are wet, so further rainfall will generate runoff into the major storages.

“Early season reserves in the Murray and Goulburn systems are fully established as seasonal determinations in both systems are higher than 50 per cent.

“That is good news for the operation of the two systems in 2019/20.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks continue to favour drier conditions.

“The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria is more likely during the September to November period,” Dr Bailey said.

“The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could form during spring. Both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically reduces rainfall in south-eastern Australia.”

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, September 3.
Murray 71% 0%
Broken 4% 0%
Goulburn 56% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 56% 0%
Bullarook 69% 0%


Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 168 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on September 10, 2018.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 226 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Monday 10 September 2018
  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement, including an updated outlook, will be released on Monday 17 September 2018.