No change to seasonal determinations

Tuesday 15 March, 2022

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 seasonal determinations.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems remain unchanged at 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS).

Seasonal determinations in the Murray, Broken and Bullarook systems stay at the maximum possible 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said resource improvements during the past month had increased reserves for 2022/23.

“February rainfall was below average across the northern Victorian catchments,” Dr Bailey said.

“But inflows continued despite the drier conditions. At this point, the Goulburn system needs another 430 gigalitres of water to ensure full allocations to high‑reliability water shares in 2022/23.

“With only one further update this season on April 1, it is very unlikely that any of the Goulburn, Campaspe or Loddon systems will receive an allocation against LRWS this season.”

Dr Bailey confirmed releases to control the water level in Lake Hume were not required in February.

“No deductions from Murray spillable water accounts will occur with today’s announcement,” Dr Bailey said.

The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook for the April to June period does not strongly favour above- or below-average rainfall across northern Victoria. La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific and outlooks indicating a return to neutral conditions during autumn.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday 15 March are:
Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 100%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%


Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. Trade adjustments will occur in Dartmouth where there is storage capacity available before occurring in Hume.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 35 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria to keep the risk of spill in Hume and Dartmouth below 50 per cent. This volume is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the  Victorian Water Register website.

An interim rule for trade from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia is in effect from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2022, replacing the previous rule that had been in place since 2013. The interim trade rule means that since December 15 2021, net trade is capped and the inter-valley trade account balance is being run down.

In accordance with the interim trade rule cap, since 15 December, additional trade opportunity is only created when allocation is traded back from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales or South Australia into the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe or Loddon systems. More details about the new trade rule are available at the  Victorian Water Register website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Victorian Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The final 2021/22 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday 1 April, 2022.
  • The next risk of spill update will be released on Monday 11 April, 2022.