Seasonal Determination - 15 November 2022

Tuesday 15 November, 2022

Goulburn and Murray low-reliability water share seasonal determinations increase

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2022/23 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system increases from 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) and 40 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) to 100 per cent HWRS and 100 per cent LRWS.

The Goulburn and Loddon systems move from 100 per cent HRWS and 7 per cent LRWS to 100 per cent HWRS and 77 per cent LRWS.

The seasonal determinations in the Broken, Campaspe and Bullarook systems all remain at the maximum availability of 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the improved seasonal determinations came from continued high flows into Murray and Goulburn storages during the second half of October and early November.

“Controlled releases from Lake Hume and Lake Eildon have occurred throughout October and November,” Dr Bailey said. “These releases signalled the availability of more resources for distribution.

“The releases from Lake Hume supported the availability of 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares announced today,” Dr Bailey said. “About 180 GL will be transferred into Murray spillable water accounts and all this will be deducted.”

“The releases from Lake Eildon will deduct about 490 gigalitres from Goulburn spillable water accounts. That will be 100 per cent of the volume transferred into those accounts. More water may go into Goulburn spillable accounts if further low-reliability seasonal determinations are made.”

Commenting on the year to date, Dr Bailey noted the impacts of the wet conditions. “New record inflows occurred during October at several northern Victorian storages, including Lake Eildon, Lake Eppalock and Cairn Curran Reservoir.

“Water use is about 80 per cent lower than this time last year because of the wet conditions. Use is normally an important factor in determining availability and lowering commitments, but not this year.”

Dr Bailey noted longer term Bureau of Meteorology outlooks still favoured wetter conditions over the summer months, which is expected to contribute to further seasonal determination improvements in the Goulburn system.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday 15 November are:
Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 100%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 77%
Campaspe 100% 100%
Loddon 100% 77%
Bullarook 100% 100%


Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is not currently possible because Victoria’s shares of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir are full.

Due to the current emergency flood response in northern Victoria, the next release of Goulburn to Murray trade opportunity will occur on December 15, 2022. For more information, please see the news item on the Victorian Water Register website

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website,

Trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website 

 Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday December 12, 2022.
  • The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday December 15, 2022.