Outlook - 15 May 2014

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released an updated outlook for 2014/15 seasonal determinations, risk of spill and trading opportunities.

“On 1 July 2014, seasonal determinations will be announced for high-reliability water shares in the Goulburn, Loddon and Murray systems. The Campaspe system will start the 2014/15 season with 100% HRWS,” Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said. “Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volumes carried over and catchment conditions. All systems are expected to have 100% HRWS by mid-December 2014 under average inflow conditions.”

“The limit on carryover of unused allocation will apply to the Murray system as well as the Goulburn and Campaspe systems at the beginning of the 2014/15 season,” said Dr Bailey. “It is anticipated that there will be about 500,000 ML carried over in each of the Murray and Goulburn systems and about 35,000 ML in the Campaspe system. Of this, about 250,000 ML and 350,000 ML are expected to be held by irrigators in the Murray and Goulburn systems respectively. The remaining volume will be held by the environmental water holders and urban water corporations. These volumes are highly dependent on final use and trade.”

“Use trends in the Broken and Loddon systems indicate the volume of carried over allocation will be close to the maximum allowable. Carry over rules in the Broken system have been modified to remove the ability to carry over water against LRWS to improve the early season HRWS seasonal determinations. These changes take effect at the end of the 2013/14 season.”

“It is unlikely that a low risk of spill will be declared in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems early in the 2014/15 season,” added Dr Bailey. “Customers should factor this into their seasonal watering plans.”

“There was widespread rainfall across northern Victorian in April. This reduced demand and provided some inflows to the storages, but there has not been a significant impact on storage volumes. The current Bureau of Meteorology rainfall outlook over the next three months does not favour wet or dry conditions. The Bureau of Meteorology is also indicating that there is a 70% chance that an El Niño will develop by spring.”

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2014/15 Season
The Resource Manager has used the full inflow record available to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

On 1 July 2014, a seasonal determination will be announced in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems under all inflow scenarios. The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations.

Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on use and the volume of inflows during winter and spring. The chances improve if inflows result in water being debited from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage. More detailed information about LRWS seasonal determination outlooks will be included in the 1 July seasonal determination announcement.

Campaspe system LRWS seasonal determinations are expected to commence in mid-spring under average conditions, but are unlikely to reach 100%. There will be no LRWS seasonal determinations under dry conditions.

Customers in the Broken system are expected to receive 100% HRWS by 15 October 2014 under average conditions. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are unlikely to commence until early October but are expected to be 100% HRWS by mid December. 

Further Detail on the Risk of Spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems
Based on the volume expected to be held in Victoria’s share of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir, and the volumes in Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock at the end of 2013/14, there is the potential that spills may occur in all three systems in 2014/15.

Trading Opportunities
The probability of spill in the Murray system is anticipated to be greater than 50% early in 2014/15. If this is the case, trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be limited to matching the volume of trade out of Victoria to New South Wales early in the 2014/15 season. The availability of trade from New South Wales into the Victorian Murray system will be confirmed on 1 July 2014.

The volume owed to the Murray system from the Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade account is about 35 GL. Trade from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray, or to New South Wales and South Australia, is allowed while the total volume owed to the Murray is less than 200 GL. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading.

Customers participating in the water trading market are advised that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority will make an announcement early in the 2014/15 season about the ability to trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users. 

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The first 2014/15 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 July 2014 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated seasonal outlook.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and water ownership, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/. The volumes of unused water and available in ABAs are available from the Victorian Water Register at waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-availability-and-use/unused-water.