High-reliability and low-reliability outlooks for the 2014/15 season
With the Murray and Broken systems at less than 100 per cent HRWS on August 15, Dr Bailey said both systems were expected to have 100 per cent HRWS by October 15 even under dry conditions. The Broken system should receive 100 per cent LRWS seasonal determinations by November 15 under dry conditions.
Seasonal determinations of LRWS in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are possible during spring under wet and average conditions. The Murray system may receive LRWS seasonal determinations in mid-February 2015 under average conditions, but wet conditions could see LRWS seasonal determinations available towards the end of 2014.
"The low-reliability water share outlooks released today enable entitlement holders to make more informed decisions about water availability this season," Dr Bailey said.
"The outlooks describe possible seasonal determinations under assumed use and system performance for different inflow conditions."
The full available inflow record was used to assess the LRWS seasonal determinations scenarios for the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems. The scenarios use the following terminology:
| Wet |
Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded |
| Average |
Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded |
| Dry |
Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded |
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 October 2014
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
0%
|
40%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
0%
|
20%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 October 2014
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
50%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
5%
|
50%
|
80%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Seasonal determinations for LRWS in the Campaspe system are expected in February under average inflow conditions, but are unlikely to exceed 20 per cent. There will be no LRWS seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system under dry conditions.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
The next seasonal determination announcement will be released on September 1. An updated probability of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on September 10.
For further information go to www.nvrm.net.au, waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au