Low-reliability outlooks for the 2014/15 season
Seasonal determinations of LRWS in the Goulburn system are possible in early summer under wet inflow conditions and are possible later in summer in the Murray system. There will be no LRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray or Goulburn systems under average or dry conditions. The full available inflow record was used to assess the LRWS seasonal determinations scenarios for the Murray and Goulburn systems. The scenarios use the following terminology:
| Wet |
Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded |
| Average |
Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded |
| Dry |
Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded |
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
0%
|
90%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
10%
|
35%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
Inflows into the Campaspe and Loddon systems need to be higher than the wet scenario for LRWS seasonal determinations to become available this season.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
An updated probability of spill assessment for the Murray system will be announced on Wednesday, December 10. The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Monday, December 15, 2014 and on the 15th (or next business day) of each month thereafter.
For further information go to www.nvrm.net.au, waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au