Outlook for the 2019/20 season
The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
32% |
62% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
12% |
37% |
74% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
24% |
40% |
53% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
14% |
18% |
21% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
42% |
84% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
15% |
42% |
81% |
100% |
| Dry |
3% |
19% |
37% |
46% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
4% |
11% |
16% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
26% |
73% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
18% |
24% |
33% |
34% |
| Extreme Dry |
18% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
42% |
84% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
12% |
42% |
81% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
2% |
30% |
36% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
33% |
69% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
7% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
8% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
6% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
1% |
25% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).
Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2019/20 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- An updated 2019/20 seasonal determination outlook will be released on Wednesday 15 May 2019.