The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
40% |
94% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
24% |
48% |
83% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
14% |
35% |
42% |
48% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
9% |
13% |
16% |
19% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
71% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
47% |
85% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
38% |
49% |
61% |
67% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
35% |
35% |
37% |
39% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
61% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
36% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
32% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
93% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
74% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
26% |
49% |
61% |
66% |
| Extreme Dry |
2002/03 |
20% |
21% |
22% |
24% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
1996/97 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
1990/91 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
0% |
26% |
52% |
57% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website (www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks).
Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2020/21 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Friday July 10, 2020.
- The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday July 15, 2020 and will include an updated outlook.