Opening Seasonal Determinations for 2012/13 for all Systems Announced

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

Further Information

For information: From 1 July 2012 onwards, the Resource Manager will refer to seasonal determination in place of the term seasonal allocation. An allocation is the volume of water available to entitlement holders. It is the total of the water share volume multiplied by the seasonal determination, plus any unused allocation carried over from last season, less usage, plus the net of all allocation trades. Seasonal determination is the percentage of water share volume available under current resource conditions.

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today announced the first seasonal determination and risk of spill assessment for 2012/13.

All systems receive seasonal determinations for the start of the 2012/13 season. The Murray system seasonal determination is 26% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The seasonal determination in the Goulburn and Loddon systems is 61% HRWS. The Broken system seasonal determination is 18% HRWS and Bullarook system customers receive a seasonal determination of 14% HRWS. Campaspe system customers have a seasonal determination of 100% HRWS.

"For the second consecutive season, all systems have received a seasonal determination in the opening announcement," said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. "The reserves established last season have directly contributed to the seasonal determinations announced today."

"Similar to last season, the volume of allocation carried over into 2012/13 is equivalent to approximately 100% of HRWS in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems. Low deliveries in the Broken, Loddon and Bullarook systems ensured that customers in those systems have carried over close to the maximum volume of allocation that is possible under the carryover rules for those systems," added Dr Bailey.

Outlook for the 2012/13 Season

The Resource Manager has used the full inflow record available to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

Wet - Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded
Average - Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded
Dry - Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded

The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the 2012/13 season.

In the Broken system, customers are expected to receive a seasonal determination of 100% HRWS by 15 February 2013 under dry conditions. Under average conditions, the seasonal determination is expected to reach 100% HRWS during spring. Low-reliability water shares are also expected to receive a seasonal determination of 100% in late spring under average conditions.

"Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring. That is if inflows result in water being debited from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage, the chances of seasonal determinations of LRWS improve," said Dr Bailey.

Under average conditions in the Campaspe system, customers are expected to receive a seasonal determination of 100% LRWS by 15 October.

Summary of Seasonal Determinations

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday 2 July 2012 are detailed at the top of the page.

Customers participating in the water trading market are reminded that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has relaxed the rule controlling allocation trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users. The ability to trade across the Barmah Choke will be regularly reviewed by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and the relaxation may be lifted at any time during the season.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

The next assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Tuesday 10 July 2012.

The next seasonal determination announcement and updated outlooks for 2012/13 will be issued on Monday 16 July 2012.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.