Seasonal Determinations for 2013/14 Updated

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

Further Information

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today announced an update to the seasonal determinations for 2013/14.

Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are 54% high-reliability water shares (HRWS), which is an increase of 3%. The seasonal determinations in the Murray, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems are unchanged.

“There has been very little change to the water availability in northern Victoria over the past fortnight,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “The inflows to Lake Eildon were slightly higher than forecast, which allowed the increase in the Goulburn seasonal determination. The Loddon increased because it is linked to the Goulburn system, but no changes were possible for the other systems because of the limited rainfall and low inflows that are occurring.”

Outlook for the 2013/14 Season
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the 2013/14 season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

“Seasonal determinations against low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring, said Dr Bailey. “The chances of LRWS seasonal determinations improve if inflows cause debits from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage.”

Under average conditions, Broken system customers are expected to have 100% HRWS by 15 October 2013 and 100% LRWS by late spring. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are unlikely to commence until early October but are expected to be 100% HRWS by mid February.

Average conditions in the Campaspe system should allow customers to receive a seasonal determination of 100% LRWS by early summer.

Trading Opportunities

The probability of spill in the Victorian Murray system is currently greater than 50%. Therefore, trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to New South Wales. The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on 10 August 2013, and the 10th of each month thereafter. This limit is part of trade controls announced in November 2012 to prevent trade impacting on new season allocations.

Customers participating in the water trading market are reminded that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has relaxed the rule controlling allocation trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority will regularly review the ability to trade across the Barmah Choke and may lift the relaxation at any time during the season.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday 1 August 2013.
• An updated probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on Monday 12 August 2013.