Seasonal Determination update

Announcement Date: 15 Jan 2016
Next Announcement Due: 1 Feb 2016

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

  High Reliability Water Share Change to High Reliability Water Share Low Reliability Water Share Comments
Murray 96% +1% 0% Declared 10 September 2015
Broken 22% +2% 0% -
Goulburn 85% +1% 0% Declared 1 July 2015
Campaspe 59% +3% 0% Declared 1 July 2015
Loddon 71% +6% 0% -
Bullarook Creek 6% 0% 0% -

Further Information

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced increased 2015/16 seasonal determinations for the Murray, Broken, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems.

The Murray system increases by one per cent to 96 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) and the Goulburn system also increases by one per cent to 85 per cent HRWS. The Broken system increases by two per cent to 22 per cent HRWS.

The Loddon system increases by six per cent to 71 per cent HRWS and the Campaspe system increases by three per cent to 59 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Bullarook system remained unchanged.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said the unstable weather conditions of the last fortnight had contributed to the increased seasonal determinations.

“The recent storms produced isolated areas of intense rain over brief periods,” said Dr Bailey. “Several storages received quite large but short-lived inflows.”

“Our actual evaporation and river losses were also lower than forecast.”

Trading Opportunities

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 75 GL to the Murray system on January 15. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The spill risk limit allows more than 200 GL of trade, and so the net annual volume of 200 GL applies unless advised otherwise.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website,

Standard Murray-Darling Basin Authority policy prohibits the net trade of allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream to protect delivery of downstream water entitlements. However, there is currently about 165 GL of capacity available to trade from upstream to downstream. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website at

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday, February 1, 2016.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and carryover volumes, please visit The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at

Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at

Details of the January to March rainfall outlook are available from and seasonal streamflow forecasts are available at