Murray seasonal determination update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system increases from 90 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 96 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS.

The Broken and Bullarook systems are unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said flows into the Murray system remained above estimates despite recent hotter weather.

“The rain in early January kept the flows into the Murray system above expectations,” Dr Bailey said.

“Those resources, along with additional flows forecast for the coming weeks, contributed to the increased Murray seasonal determination announced today.”

Dr Bailey said the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook mostly favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three month period from February to April.

“The Bureau says La Niña conditions will likely persist until late summer or early autumn. A La Niña may support above‑average rainfall across eastern Australia during summer,” Dr Bailey said.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Friday, January 15 are:

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 238 GL to the Murray system. Deliveries from the Goulburn IVT account to the River Murray have continued through January. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

Conversely, the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement and updated Murray outlook will be released on Monday February 1 2021.