Seasonal determination and outlook update for 2021/22

Thursday 15 July, 2021

Updated and outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2021/22 seasonal determinations and outlook for 2021/22 water availability.

The Murray system moves from 21 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 31 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 33 per cent HRWS to 37 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 14 per cent HRWS to 23 per cent HRWS. The Broken system increases from 5 per cent HRWS to 8 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Bullarook system increase from 40 per cent HRWS to the maximum available 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said confirmed carryover volumes and better than assumed flows into the major storages contributed to the increases announced today.

“Final carryover volumes are not known until early in each new water year,” Dr Bailey said.

“The confirmed volumes were slightly lower than we estimated for the July 1 seasonal determinations. This means more water was available for allocation with this update.

“Also, the catchments are generating good flows into the storages at present. The wet catchments and continued handy rainfall is producing more flow than our conservative estimates.

“We look forward to continued rain through winter and spring to boost storage levels and increase the seasonal determinations.

“The August to October rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology favours above average rainfall across the catchments. The Bureau noted that conditions in the Indian Ocean are typical of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which could bring above-average rainfall totals.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Thursday, July 15.
Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 31% 0%
Broken 8% 0%
Goulburn 37% 0%
Campaspe 23% 0%
Loddon 37% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. This volume is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the  Water Register website.

An interim rule for trade from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia is in effect from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2022, replacing the previous rule that had been in place since 2013. The new trade rule means that until December 15, 2021, trade is allowed whenever the total amount owed from the Goulburn to the Murray, including the Lower Broken Creek, is less than 190 GL. From December 15, 2021, net trade will be capped and the inter-valley trade account balance will be run down.

The volume currently committed to the Murray is 190 GL, meaning trade from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia is closed. More details about the new trade rule are available at the  Water Register website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2021/22 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday August 2, 2021.