Outlook - 01 July 2013

Opening Seasonal Determinations for 2013/14 Announced

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today announced the first seasonal determination and risk of spill assessment for 2013/14.

The Murray system seasonal determination is 42% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The seasonal determination in the Goulburn and Loddon systems is 51% HRWS. Campaspe system customers have a seasonal determination of 100% HRWS. The seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems are 0% HRWS. Water held in spillable water accounts is not available in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems due to high probabilities of spill.

“This is the third consecutive season that the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems have received a seasonal determination at the opening announcement,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “Seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems are not yet possible, but the volumes carried over will ensure water is available early in the season.”

“Higher use in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2012/13 means the volume of allocation carried over is lower than in previous seasons,” said Dr Bailey. “There will be approximately 850,000 ML carried over in the Murray system, 450,000 ML in the Goulburn and 25,000 ML in the Campaspe system.”

“It is unlikely that a low risk of spill will be declared in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems early in the 2013/14 season. However, the declaration may occur earlier than in the past two seasons if conditions remain dry,” added Dr Bailey.

Outlook for the 2013/14 Season
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the 2013/14 season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

“Seasonal determinations against low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring, said Dr Bailey. “The chances of LRWS seasonal determinations improve if inflows cause debits from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage.”

Under average conditions, Broken system customers are expected to have 100% HRWS by 15 October 2013 and 100% LRWS by late spring. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are unlikely to commence until early October but are expected to be 100% HRWS by mid February.

Average conditions in the Campaspe system should allow customers to receive a seasonal determination of 100% LRWS by late spring.

Further Detail on the Risk of Spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems

A low risk of spill declaration is not possible for the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems at this time. The probabilities of spill from Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are all higher than the 10% threshold for a declaration. Customers are reminded that under the changes to carryover rules announced in November 2012, Lake Hume has replaced Dartmouth Reservoir as the primary indicator for spill in the Murray system.

Water share holders should expect that water in spillable water accounts may not be available until later in 2013 or early in 2014, and should plan their early season water use requirements accordingly.

Summary of Seasonal Determinations
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday 1 July 2013 are:

Trading Opportunities

The probability of spill in the Victorian Murray system is currently greater than 50%. Therefore, trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be limited to the volume of trade out of Victoria to New South Wales. The availability of trade from NSW into the Victorian Murray system will be recalculated on 10 August 2013, and the 10th of each month thereafter. This limit is part of trade controls announced in November 2012 to prevent trade impacting on new season allocations.

Customers participating in the water trading market are advised that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has announced that the trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the choke will continue in the 2013/14 water year. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority will regularly review the ability to trade across the Barmah Choke and may lift the relaxation at any time during the season.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• An updated probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on 10 July 2013.
• The next seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 15 July 2013 and will include an updated seasonal outlook.

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Media Contact:          Dr Mark Bailey

Position:                      Resource Manager

Telephone:                  (03) 5826 3516