Outlook - 15 February 2013

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2013/14 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2013/14 seasonal determinations.

"The Goulburn, Loddon and Murray systems are expected to receive seasonal determinations on 1 July 2013 and the Campaspe system is expected to start the 2013/14 season with a seasonal determination of 100% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS)," Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said. "Early season announcements in the Broken system will be influenced by the volume carried over and catchment conditions."

"All of the northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid February 2014 under average inflow conditions," said Dr Bailey.

"The volume of unused allocation at the end of the 2012/13 season in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems is expected to be lower than recent seasons due to higher usage by water share holders. The majority of storages across northern Victoria are now lower than this time twelve months ago. The allocation carried over in the Broken, Loddon and Bullarook systems is likely to be close to the maximum available under the rules for those systems."

"The storage position and carryover trends means that it is unlikely that a low risk of spill will be declared in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems early in the 2013/14 season," added Dr Bailey.

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2013/14 Season

The Resource Manager has used the full inflow record available to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

            Wet                  Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded

            Average          Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded

            Dry                  Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded

On 1 July 2013, a seasonal determination is expected to be announced in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems under all inflow scenarios. The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations through the season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring. If inflows result in water being debited from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage, the chances of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares improve.

Seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system are expected to be 100% of HRWS under all inflow scenarios on 1 July 2013. Under average conditions, seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system are expected to be 100% of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) by the end of spring. Seasonal determinations to LRWS are unlikely in 2013/14 under dry conditions.

In the Broken system, customers are expected to receive an allocation of 100% HRWS by 15 December 2013 under average conditions. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are likely to be about 40% HRWS by 17 February 2014.

Further Detail on the Risk of Spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems

There is likely to be a high volume of unused allocation at the end of the 2012/13 season in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems, but not as high as the previous two seasons due to the change in carryover rules and higher usage. Based on the volume expected to be held in Victoria's share of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir, and the volumes in Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock at the end of 2012/13, there is the potential that spills may occur in all three systems in 2013/14.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Friday 15 March 2013.
• The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Wednesday 15 May 2013.
• The first 2013/14 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 July 2013 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

- ENDS -

Media Contact:          Dr Mark Bailey

Position:                      Resource Manager

Telephone:                  (03) 5826 3516