Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2015/16 Seasonal Determination Outlook Update
Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey has updated the outlook for the 2015/16 season and has included an “Extreme Dry” category.
“With the current dry conditions and concerns for what the El Niño event may mean for inflows during spring, we added a new ‘Extreme Dry’ outlook to inform water users of likely seasonal determinations under near-minimum inflows,” Dr Bailey said.
“Most northern Victorian systems have tracked close to the ‘Dry’ outlook category in recent months. This is expected to continue under the July to September climate outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on June 25.”
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:
Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Extreme dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
68% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
48% |
78% |
100% |
| Dry |
41% |
61% |
83% |
| Extreme Dry |
37% |
37% |
43% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
83% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
53% |
84% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
44% |
49% |
58% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
83% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
53% |
84% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
37% |
37% |
38% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
59% |
76% |
79% |
| Extreme Dry |
50% |
50% |
50% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
61% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
41% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
22% |
51% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Shares Outlooks
The dry conditions of 2014/15 mean reserves for 2015/16 are lower than in recent years and a reduced chance of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares. Inflows and use will define if seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares occur in 2015/16.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday July 15, 2015 and will include an updated outlook.
For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit http://www.nvrm.net.au/. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/.
Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
Details of the July to September rainfall outlook are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.