Outlook – 16 May 2015

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2015/16 Seasonal Determination Outlook Update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the outlook for seasonal determinations, risks of spill, and trading opportunities in 2015/16.

"The Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems will receive high-reliability water share (HRWS) seasonal determinations on July 1, 2015," Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said. "Inflows and carryover of unused allocation will influence the early availability of HRWS in the Broken and Bullarook systems."

"Average inflows through 2015/16 should deliver 100 per cent HRWS in all systems by mid-December 2015.

"Under dry inflow conditions, only the Goulburn and Loddon systems are likely to reach 100 per cent HRWS in 2015/16. This represents a deterioration of the outlook since February 2015, but is consistent with recent weather conditions."

"After a wet start, most of 2014/15 was very dry and recent storage inflows have been extremely low. For example, the March and April 2015 inflows to Lake Eildon were among the lowest recorded for those months and the Campaspe and Loddon systems have not received inflows for several months."

The Bureau of Meteorology recently announced the onset of an El Niño in Australia. "An El Niño generally increases the chances of a drier than normal winter and spring across eastern Australia, but does not guarantee conditions will become very dry," Dr Bailey said.

"The Bureau of Meteorology says May to July is likely to be wetter than normal over much of northern Victoria, but inflows may still be lower than average. The catchments need to be wetter to allow more runoff to occur."

Carryover Expectations

"Current use trends suggest carryover volumes of about 450 GL in the Murray and Goulburn systems and 25 GL in the Campaspe system," Dr Bailey said. "The volumes held by irrigators are about 250 GL in the Murray system and 220 GL in the Goulburn system, with the remaining volumes linked to environmental water holders and urban water corporations. These volumes are highly dependent on final use and trade.

"The carryover volume is less than 2014/15 and is consistent with the drier weather this year. There are lesser volumes in the Broken and Loddon systems too."

Further Detail of 2015/16 HRWS Outlooks

The outlook scenarios for 2015/16 seasonal determinations presented in the following tables use the complete record of inflow data. The scenarios have the following properties:

Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded

Note that the Dry Inflow Condition does not represent the lowest possible seasonal determination, as inflows with less than 90 chances in 100 of being exceeded could occur.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Shares Outlooks

The dry conditions of 2014/15 mean reserves for 2015/16 are lower than in recent years and a reduced chance of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares. Inflows and use will define if seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares occur in 2015/16.

Information on the Risks of Spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems

The storages in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems are holding less water than at this time in 2014/15 and the risks of spill are lower. An early season declaration of a low risk of spill depends on winter and spring inflows into each system.

Trading Opportunities

The Goulburn system's inter-valley trade (IVT) account currently owes about 6 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Trading to zones further upstream than Zone 3 (Lower Goulburn) is also subject to the Upper Goulburn IVT account, which currently has a lower balance (about 0.5 GL).

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. As the current risk of spill limit allows more than 200 GL of trade, the limit of 200 GL applies for the remaining months of 2014/15.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on July 1, 2015.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading.

The trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Trade to entitlement holders downstream of the Choke can only occur if there has been trade to entitlement holders upstream of the Choke. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website www.mdba.gov.au/river-data/barmah-choke.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority will make an announcement for the coming season about the ability to trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The first 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday July 1, 2015 and will include an assessment of the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated outlook.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit http://www.nvrm.net.au/. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/.

Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
Details of the May to July rainfall outlook are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.