Outlook - 17 August 2015

Monday 17 August, 2015

Murray, Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase

"Inflows to the Murray, Goulburn and Broken systems remain near the ‘Dry' outlook category," Dr Bailey said.

"Inflows into the Loddon and Campaspe systems are tracking between the ‘Dry' and ‘Extreme Dry' outlook categories."

The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded.

Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded.

Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded.

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 October 2015 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 84% 100% 100%
Dry 67% 78% 89%
Extreme Dry 50% 50% 54%

 

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2015 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 100% 100% 100%
Dry 81% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 61% 67% 70%

 

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2015 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 100% 100% 100%
Dry 81% 93% 99%
Extreme Dry 44% 44% 44%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2015 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 100% 100% 100%
Dry 62% 64% 66%
Extreme Dry 50% 50% 50%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 October 2015 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 100% 100% 100%
Dry 20% 36% 43%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0%

 

2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Share Outlooks

Details about the chances for seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares will be included when seasonal determinations reach 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday September 1, 2015.
  • The next risk of spill in the Murray system will be issued on Thursday September 10, 2015

 For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and carryover volumes, please visit www.nvrm.net.au. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/.

 Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.

Details of the August to October rainfall outlook and seasonal streamflow forecasts are available at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.