Murray, Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase
"Inflows to the Murray, Goulburn and Broken systems remain near the ‘Dry' outlook category," Dr Bailey said.
"Inflows into the Loddon and Campaspe systems are tracking between the ‘Dry' and ‘Extreme Dry' outlook categories."
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:
Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
84% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
67% |
78% |
89% |
| Extreme Dry |
50% |
50% |
54% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
81% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
61% |
67% |
70% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
81% |
93% |
99% |
| Extreme Dry |
44% |
44% |
44% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
62% |
64% |
66% |
| Extreme Dry |
50% |
50% |
50% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
20% |
36% |
43% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Share Outlooks
Details about the chances for seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares will be included when seasonal determinations reach 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday September 1, 2015.
- The next risk of spill in the Murray system will be issued on Thursday September 10, 2015
For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and carryover volumes, please visit www.nvrm.net.au. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/.
Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
Details of the August to October rainfall outlook and seasonal streamflow forecasts are available at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.