Northern Victorian Resource Manager releases 2022/23 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2022/23 seasonal determinations.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the reserves built so far in 2021/22 had laid strong foundations for 2022/23.

“The Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems have reserves available for 2022/23,” Dr Bailey said.

“Based on estimated use to the end of the season, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system are likely to be around 80 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS).

“In the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems, the opening seasonal determinations are expected to start at about 50 per cent HRWS. That’s under our dry outlook category, which is much drier than current catchments conditions.”

Fewer reserves are available in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which have a lower entitlement to storage ratio.

“Carried over allocation volumes and catchment conditions will influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems,” Dr Bailey added.

“Average inflow conditions should see all of the northern Victorian systems reach seasonal determinations of 100 per cent HRWS by mid-October 2022."

The Resource Manager used climate-adjusted flow records and assumptions about water use to the end of the water year to determine the initial risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

“The Murray system risk of spill in 2022/23 is currently about 80 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risk is around 60 per cent in the Goulburn and about 40 per cent in the Campaspe system. 

“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2021/22.”

Further detail on outlook for the 2022/23 season

The outlooks for 2021/22 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry    Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The next 2021/22 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday March 15, 2022.
• The 2022/23 seasonal determination outlooks will be updated on Monday May 16, 2022.
• The first 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday July 1, 2022 and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.