Murray seasonal determinations for 2023/24 increase to 100 per cent

Tuesday 15 August, 2023

Outlook for the 2023/24 Season

The outlooks for 2023/24 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

  • Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following table summarises possible Broken high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 16 October 2023 15 December 2023 15 February 2024
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2018/19 100% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 72% 73% 74%

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at

“The shortfall to announcing seasonal determinations for low-reliability water shares in the Goulburn and Loddon systems is about 165 gigalitres,” Dr Bailey said. “The shortfall in the Murray system will be confirmed after the annual borrow from the Barmah-Millewa Environmental Water Allocation is fully repaid. The repayment will begin now that the Murray has reached 100 per cent HRWS.”

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2023/24 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday September 1, 2023.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday September 11, 2023.