Northern Victorian Resource Manager Updates 2023/24 Seasonal Determination Outlook

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Updates 2023/24 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today updated the outlook for 2023/24 seasonal determinations.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey described a generally positive outlook for 2023/24 water availability.

“The storages are in a good position to support 2023/24 seasonal determinations and the carried over unused allocation,” Dr Bailey said.

“Based on estimated carry over, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray system are likely to be about 70 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS).

“Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are expected to start at least 80 per cent HRWS or better.

“The Campaspe system has enough resource available to allocate 100 per cent HRWS under all conditions on the first 2023/24 announcement on July 3, 2023.

“The volume of carryover and catchment conditions will influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which have smaller storages and fewer reserves.

“Average inflow conditions should allow the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach 100 per cent HRWS by mid-August 2023. The same conditions in the Broken system would provide 100 per cent HRWS in mid-October.

“The Murray and Goulburn systems need average or better inflow conditions for seasonal determinations to low-reliability water shares (LRWS). LRWS allocations in the Campaspe system are likely from mid-August under average inflow conditions.

“Early season use that reduces the amount of water committed, plus continued inflows into the storages, will increase the chances of allocations to LRWS.

“Any scenario in which LRWS is allocated in the Murray and Goulburn systems will see deductions from spillable water accounts."

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2023/24 Season

The outlooks for 2023/24 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website  www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The last 2022/23 risk of spill update will be announced on Monday June 12, 2023.
• The first 2023/24 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday July 3, 2023 and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.