Outlook for the 2023/24 Season
The outlooks for 2023/24 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
- Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2014/15 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
89% |
91% |
92% |
94% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
65% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2021/22 |
65% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2018/19 |
64% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
54% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The next 2023/24 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday August 1, 2023.
- The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Thursday August 10, 2023.