Outlook for the 2022/23 season
The outlooks for 2022/23 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
- Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
2020/21 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Dry |
2015/16 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
94% |
97% |
100% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Dry |
2009/10 |
89% |
90% |
90% |
Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
82% |
82% |
82% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Average |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Dry |
2018/19 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
57% |
58% |
59% |
Sustained wetter than average inflow conditions and spills from Lake Hume are needed in the Murray system before low-reliability water share seasonal determinations can be announced.
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday September 1, 2022.
- The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday September 12, 2022.