Outlook - 15 February 2016

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2016/17 seasonal determinations.

“All systems need rain and more water in the storages for seasonal determinations in early 2016/17,” Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said.

“Low rainfall and use has taken the storages to their lowest levels in the last five years,” said Dr Bailey. “The volume of water flowing into the Murray system so far this season would be greater in 91 years out of 100. The flows into the other northern Victorian systems would be larger in 96 to 99 years out of 100.

“This means low seasonal determinations are likely early in the new water year even under improved weather conditions and a poor outlook if it stays dry.”

Carried over allocation in the Murray and Goulburn systems will be deliverable from the start of the season under all weather conditions. The prospects for the Broken, Campaspe, Loddon, and Bullarook systems are less certain.

“Continued dry conditions will affect deliveries of carryover in the Broken, Campaspe, Loddon, and Bullarook systems,” said Dr Bailey. “All options to help water users are being explored right now.”

Dr Bailey noted some relief may come from the reported decline of the El Niño weather pattern that has affected south-eastern Australian rainfall over recent months. “The Bureau of Meteorology suggests a return to more average weather conditions in the first half of 2016.

“With this forecast improvement still to appear, we encourage entitlement holders to carefully watch the weather and use this first outlook to plan their water needs for the rest of this season and the start of 2016/17.”

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2016/17 Season

The Resource Manager used historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

• Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season in the Murray, Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe, Loddon and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available here.

Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in 2016/17 will require sustained wet conditions. Outlooks for LRWS will be prepared during the 2016/17 season if inflow conditions improve.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Tuesday March 1, 2016.
• The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Monday May 16, 2016.
• The first 2016/17 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday July 1, 2016 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.